Russia is increasing its domestic weapons production and acquiring ready-made weapons from its partners to continue the war in Ukraine, assess the experts of the National Defense University (MPKK).
Russia’s war in Ukraine will not fall due to the lack of Western microchips and high technology.
However, in the future, Russia may have to prioritize attack plans more than before and limit the use of high accuracy weapons.
– Most obviously, the precision weapons have not been sufficient for the firing of the troops, because their use is not visible in the battles, says the head of MPKK’s Russia research group, lieutenant colonel Simo Pesu.
According to Pesu, Russia has no shortage of simple, long-range weapons. It can be seen in the attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and the number of civilian casualties caused by the attacks.
According to Finnish experts, Russia has used precision weapons with guidance systems sparingly in Ukraine, while traditional weapons such as rockets and artillery ammunition have been used in abundance.
There will be no problems in the production of such weapons in Russia in the future.
– I would suspect that at the stage when the precision weapons of older production have been used, we will have to rely on the current production capacity. Then the precision weapon arsenal will be used or have to be used sparingly, according to the specialist researcher Juha Honkonen from the military engineering department of MPKK.
The war in Ukraine, which has lasted more than six months, is at one of its turning points.
Ukraine’s counterattack in the northeastern part of the country has led to the rapid retreat of Russian troops from the Kharkiv area.
According to intelligence information, Russia would have already used up half of its weapons arsenal and would have to rely more and more on simple Soviet-era ammunition or obtain ammunition from its allies, such as North Korea.
The losses suffered by the Russian ground forces and the consumption of precision weapons have changed and continue to change Russia’s offensive strategy.
According to Pesu, it is likely that the attacks made by Russia will not be as extensive in the future as before and the goals must be chosen more carefully.
Ukraine warns of Kremlin ‘shopping list’
Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said in early September that technological superiority will decide the course of the war. It all depends on whether Russia succeeds in acquiring Western microchips.
Politico magazine (you will switch to another service) got hold of the so-called Kremlin “shopping list”, which lists the components and a lot of other high-tech that Russia needs to continue the war. There are 25 components classified as critical in the list. Most are products of US technology companies.
It has not been possible to verify whether the list was actually prepared by the Russian administration.
Finnish experts consider the Kremlin’s “shopping list” to be credible. According to Lieutenant Colonel Simo Pesu, Ukraine knows well the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian military industry thanks to their shared Soviet history.
During the Soviet Union, the republics specialized in the production of munitions in different areas. For example, tanks were built in Ukraine.
However, experts doubt claims that Russia would not be able to build its own microcircuits. It’s more about the scale of production.
Researchers from the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank, found hundreds of microchips and semiconductors originating from the United States, East Asia and Europe in the destroyed Russian weapons.
According to Honkonen and Pesu, the large amount of Western technology in Russia’s armaments can also signal that when Russia developed its latest weapon technologies in the early 2000s, it was cheaper to buy microchips from abroad than to manufacture them itself.
According to Honkonen, microcircuit technology intended for military use was already being produced in Russia during the Soviet Union.
Older Russian production technology produces larger components. This means that Russian microcircuits should not be installed in a mobile phone or a modern desktop computer, but such electronics can fit well in a missile.
– The computing power is not so central here, but the sensors. For some reason, the dismantlers of the destroyed devices have not mentioned anything about them. Apparently, they are not such terribly old and outdated stuff, since they have been completely silent about it, says Honkonen.
Is Russia dismantling refrigerators to continue the war?
Microcircuits similar to those in kitchen appliances have been found in Russian weapons.
This has raised questions about whether Russia would start dismantling refrigerators, dishwashers and microwave ovens to quickly get microchips into new precision weapons.
MPKK’s specialist researcher Honkonen considers this unlikely.
Russia has other means by which it can continue to wage war in Ukraine, as it has until now.
According to Honkonen, it is known that Russia is trying to increase the production of precision weapons. Instead of a microchip shortage, the problem is that production cannot be expanded quickly.
– This requires new production lines and more skilled staff. The human factor is something that cannot be produced by clicking more fingers, says Honkonen.
Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade recently prepared (switching to another service) at the request of the president, a proposal to support domestic technology companies.
The purpose is to encourage domestic companies to develop technology suitable for war. For companies it is presented (you switch to another service) tax breaks and government-guaranteed loans.
However, widespread corruption and emigration of specialists, which Russia has suffered from for a long time, may become an obstacle to the intention.
Russia also relies on usable military equipment in reserve.
According to Pesu, its utility value is lower, but it can even be an advantage for Russia, because it is easier to train soldiers called up from the reserve to use simple Soviet-era military equipment.
– The attacks will continue as long as there are weapons left, and the end of the weapons is not in sight, Pesu sums up.
If necessary, Russia quickly acquires the necessary missing capabilities by buying ready-made weapons from its partners, Iran and North Korea.
Read more: