“The state of alert” has been officially triggered since Monday, May 15 in Belarus. In the space of a weekend, four Russian aircraft were shot down in the Bryansk region, bordering both Belarus and Ukraine. Events that put the country in tension, while rumors had already been circulating for a few weeks concerning its president Alexander Lukashenko, and who appeared several times in public with visibly deteriorated health.
The dark series began on Saturday May 13, with the crash of a Russian helicopter near the Ukrainian border, reported by Russian news agencies as an “engine fire”. Other sources, however, reported four aircraft shot down by Ukraine in total in the sky of Bryansk during the weekend, two helicopters and two planes.
If the Russian army – not very verbose about its losses – has never confirmed or denied the information, the Belarusian president, the main ally of the Kremlin, reported during a visit to the army command center of the of ‘alarming’ developments prompting Minsk to go ‘on higher alert’. Concerns clarified later in the day by a presidential press release: “I want to speak about the region of Bryansk, where four aerial apparatuses were shot down”, declares the leader there.
Military threat and feverish leader
The move comes as speculation has been mounting lately about the 68-year-old autocrat’s health — and his ability to govern — after he disappeared from public view for more than a week. In what appears to be an effort to counter these assumptions, the Belarusian presidency released three photos of its leader on Saturday, May 15. Lukashenko appears there with a fixed gaze and a tired look, his left hand wrapped in bandages which, according to the opposition, could conceal a catheter.
His last appearance dated back to May 9, when he traveled to Moscow to attend ceremonies commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. The gray mine, he had then not attended the lunch offered by Vladimir Putin . He had also broken tradition by neglecting the usual address to Minsk veterans and missing national festivities. It was then his Prime Minister who had been responsible for ensuring the ceremony of allegiance to the flag, and to deliver his speech.
A feverishness so palpable on the part of the leader – accustomed like Vladimir Putin to showcasing his vigorous health – that it was then commented on by the official Russian media as well as by political figures, a very unusual exercise for allies.
The end of Belarusian sovereignty?
Opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaïa then seized the opportunity by calling on Belarusians to be well prepared “for any scenario” concerning the man who has ruled the country with an iron fist for 29 years, and imprisoned , according to the list published by the Viasna Human Rights Center, more than 1,500 political opponents. “A lot of rumors are circulating about Lukashenko’s health. For us, this means only one thing: we must be ready for all scenarios. To put Belarus on the path to democracy and avoid Russian intervention , the international community must be proactive,” she said.
After a broad protest movement triggered by his re-election marred, according to NGOs, by massive fraud in 2020, his regime launched a relentless repression which continues today. But its grip seems to have weakened in recent months, as the country draws closer to its Russian neighbor, whose offensive in Ukraine it has supported since its launch in February 2022.
On Twitter, analysts and international observers are multiplying the hypotheses of a potential trusteeship of the country by Moscow, a military occupation of Minsk by Russian troops, or even “clashes between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers on the ground Belarusian, Russian political analyst Aleksandar Djokic suggests on Twitter.While such extreme scenarios are unlikely according to other specialists, a report published in April by the European Network for Belarus explores the possibility of a potential orchestrated coup. by Moscow.