US President Joe Biden does not plan to respond to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine by sending combat troops. However, it may opt for a lower-level but still risky military operation, including supporting the post-occupation Ukrainian resistance.
There is a basic rationale for not participating directly in the Russia-Ukraine war. The United States has no treaty obligations to Ukraine. Going to war with Russia is also seen as a big gamble, as it risks spreading to Europe, destabilizing the region and escalating to the frightening point of nuclear conflict.
However, taking insufficient steps has its own risks. Failure to respond adequately may lead to the risk of giving a message from Russia to Eastern European countries such as Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania that they will remain silent about the steps that may be taken against them. These three NATO members have security assurance from both the United States and the alliance.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who traveled to Europe to meet with Ukrainian officials, consult with NATO members and meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Friday, underlined Washington’s unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. However, Blinken did not clearly define the limits of this determination.
So how far can the United States and its allies go in support of Ukraine’s self-defense if Russia’s deployment of troops on the Ukrainian border turns into an invasion?
Can the Russian occupation be resisted?
Going to war with Russia in Ukraine could tether US troops and resources for years, and result in indefinite losses as the Biden administration tries to focus on China as its main security threat.
President Biden said on January 19 that he predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin would send troops to Ukraine, but stated that he was of the opinion that Putin did not want an all-out war.
Biden did not mention the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine to stop a possible invasion; however, he had said in his previous statements that this was not an option.
Biden said he wasn’t sure how Putin would use the troops he had amassed on the Ukrainian border. However, the United States and NATO rejected Russia’s request for an assurance that the Western alliance would not expand further east.
After the overthrow of President Viktor Yanukovych, who is close to Moscow, Russia annexed the Ukrainian territory of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and intervened in the east of the country in the same year to support the separatist resistance. More than 14 thousand people died in the conflict that has been going on for eight years in the region.
Ukraine has a lot to lose, both militarily and politically. Members of Congress intensified their criticism of Biden’s approach to Putin.
Republican Senator James Inhofe, a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, accused Biden of compromising on Russia; but he also called for no troops to be sent.
Democrat Jim Himes, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, has called for sending military advisers to Ukraine “immediately continuously from the air” to provide military equipment and training.
General Philip Breedlove, who was the US Commander of European Forces from 2013 to 2016, said in an interview with the AP that he did not expect and did not recommend the US to send combat forces to Ukraine.
Instead, he said, Washington and its allies should seek ways to support Ukraine’s defense of its airspace and territorial waters, which is facing Russia’s superior power.
“If Putin is allowed to invade Ukraine and it has no or insufficient results, we will experience something similar,” Breedlove said.
What are Biden’s other options?
Considering that it is in a clearly weak position militarily, Ukraine does not have the strength to prevent the invasion of Russian troops. But Ukraine, with the support of the United States and other allies, may have the opportunity to deter Putin from taking action if he is convinced the cost will be high.
Former CIA paramilitary officer Philip Wasielewski and political scientist Seth Jones, who penned a January 13 analysis for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “The key to reining in Russia’s ambitions is to prevent Moscow from achieving a quick victory, to impose economic sanctions and shun the West. “Increasing the economic, political and military cost by ensuring its political isolation and increasing the likelihood of prolonged resistance that will exhaust the Russian army.”
The Biden administration is signaling that it thinks similarly.
How much support is the US currently giving to the Ukrainian military?
US Department of Defense (Pentagon) spokesman John Kirby said that there are about 200 National Guard soldiers in Ukraine to train and advise local forces and that this number is not planned to be increased.
There are also US special operations forces training in Ukraine; but their number is unknown. John Kirby did not provide information on whether US troops would be withdrawn if Russia invaded Ukraine; but he said the Pentagon will take appropriate and necessary decisions to ensure personnel are safe in any scenario.
The Biden administration announced on Wednesday $200m in defense aid to Ukraine, ahead of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Kiev.
Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the United States has provided Ukraine $2.5 billion in defense aid, including anti-tank missiles and radar.
How can the USA support Ukraine after the invasion?
The answer to this question is unclear. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said last week that the United States will significantly increase support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. However, Sullivan did not elaborate on how this could be done.
The Biden administration also states that it is open to the option of sending military support to allies on NATO’s eastern flank, which demands US assurance.
Jones and Wasielewski say that in addition to imposing severe sanctions on Russia if the invasion does occur, the United States must provide military assistance to Ukraine on a large scale at no cost.
According to the two experts, this military aid could include air defense, anti-tank and anti-ship systems, as well as electronic warfare and cyber-defense systems, small arms, ammunition and other elements.
“The United States and NATO must be prepared to provide long-term support to Ukraine’s resistance by whatever means,” Jones and Wasielewski write.
He states that this aid can be made openly with the support of US troops, including special operations troops, or covertly under the leadership of the CIA with the approval of President Biden.
This option risks leaving US personnel in the line of fire and drawing the US into a war it is determined to avoid.