Donald Trump announced in November that he would again seek the Republican presidential nomination in next year’s election.
However, the announcement of the candidacy was a surprisingly quiet event. No prominent Republican politicians were present at the invited guests event, and even most of the Trump family was absent.
Since the announcement of his candidacy, Trump has not held a single mass event that is typical of him. Next Saturday, he plans to finally hold one at South Carolina State.
However, Trump has to start his campaign from a difficult situation.
The mid-term elections went badly
Trump’s position among the Republicans took a hard hit in the November midterm elections. The Republicans had an excellent place to strike, inflation is high and a Democrat president Joe Biden popularity down. Usually, the party of the sitting president suffers a defeat in the midterm elections anyway.
Still, the Republicans won only a slim majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats retained control of the Senate. Even at the state level, the success of the Republicans remained modest.
Candidates strongly supported by Trump fared particularly poorly. In particular, riding Trump’s false claim of electoral fraud in the 2020 presidential election sank in badly with the American electorate.
The supremely experienced Republican leader of the Senate Mich McConnell warned in advance that the Republican candidates represented too much of the extreme.
– We did poorly with independent voters and moderate Republicans, McConnell analyzed after the election.
– They saw too much chaos, too much negativity in us, he continued.
McConnell has reportedly not spoken to Trump since the epiphany 2021 congressional takeover. Many other Republicans have now openly blamed Trump for the poor electoral success.
The weakening of Trump’s position is also indicated by the fact that after the November elections, even Fox News, a news channel favored by conservatives, has started criticizing Trump from time to time.
There are rumors from Florida – but not from Trump’s mansion
Many now seem to wish that the Republican presidential candidate in next year’s election would be, for example, the governor of Florida Ron DeSantiswho is a shy populist, but a fresher and younger option than Trump.
DeSantis received a huge landslide in the midterm elections for another term as governor.
Trump has already had time to make fun of his potential challenger, but that doesn’t seem to diminish DeSantis’ popularity.
According to some polls, DeSantis would have a significantly better chance of winning in the actual presidential election than Trump, at least if the opponent is President Joe Biden.
But an expert from the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, which conducted the poll Mark Penn estimates that Trump’s support is already on the decline, while there is a clear expectation of growth in DeSantis’s support.
And in another recent measurement, the difference between Trump and DeSantis was already smaller.
Congressional takeover could lead to impeachment of Trump
Trump is not doing particularly well anyway. The problems started piling up in December.
The committee of the House of Representatives that investigated the Epiphany 2021 congressional takeover ended up proposing that the Justice Department should bring charges against Trump for the takeover events.
According to the committee, there is enough evidence to criminally indict former President Trump, aiding and abetting those guilty of the takeover of Congress, a Democratic member of the investigative committee Jamie Raskin stated December 19.
– The committee has gathered significant evidence that President Trump sought to prevent a peaceful transfer of power in accordance with the Constitution, Raskin continued.
Trump’s response was to call the entire special committee sick, Marxist, dangerous and evil people.
The special prosecutor of the Ministry of Justice is now investigating whether there is a reason to indict Trump, especially for the events of Epiphany 2021.
On Monday, members of the Oath Keepers extremist organization that took part in the takeover of Congress were convicted of participating in a subversive conspiracy, not just rioting.
The leader of the organization had received a similar sentence earlier. The essential thing is that the organization’s activities in connection with the takeover of the Congress were therefore considered in court as planned and subversive activities, not just as a demonstration that got out of hand.
This does not bode well for Trump.
Other lawsuits as a problem for Trump
Congressional takeover is not the only legal issue that threatens Trump.
Georgia state officials may charge Trump with illegal pressure on election officials in connection with the 2020 election.
And in December, Trump’s corporate group, the Trump Organization, was convicted of tax fraud in New York. The company was fined the maximum allowed by law, $1.6 million. The group’s financial director received a prison sentence, but so far Trump himself has not been charged in the case.
The House of Representatives, on the other hand, released Trump’s personal tax information after years of legal battle. They showed that, contrary to what Trump had previously claimed, he had paid virtually no income tax for many years. It is not suspected that there was a crime, but it confirmed the reason why the billionaire had been hiding his tax information for years.
One of the objects of the investigation are classified documents found in Trump’s mansion, which he refused to hand over to the US National Archives in accordance with the law.
However, the investigation took an embarrassing turn for the Democrats, when classified material was also found in President Joe Biden’s apartment and former office, which should not have been stored there.
Trump is still the biggest power figure in the Republicans
Despite the difficulties, Trump is still arguably the most powerful person in the Republican Party.
His core group of supporters constitutes such a significant part of the Republican supporters that it is difficult to openly challenge him in the party. Without the passionate so-called it is difficult for republican politicians to manage the support of maga-trumpists even in their own party’s primaries.
And unlike other hopefuls of the Republican presidential nomination, Trump also already has a huge electoral base.
Trump is actually a big problem for Republicans.
Under his leadership, Republicans can’t seem to win elections. But at the same time, Trump’s position in his own party is so strong that it is impossible to displace him.
The Republicans’ quarrels were visible in the presidential election
The disunity of the Republicans came to the fore dramatically in early January, when the party’s radicals managed to put the brakes on it by Kevin McCarthy election as Speaker of the House of Representatives. One of the extreme Republicans, Matt Gaetzeven suggested Trump as speaker.
When McCarthy finally got the support he needed to become Speaker on the fifteenth ballot, he made it clear whose support was decisive.
– I especially want to thank President Trump. No one should doubt his influence. He was there for me from the beginning. He called me and he called others. I spoke with him tonight as well, to get the missing votes, McCarthy said right after his selection was confirmed.
When the Republicans finally gained control of the House of Representatives, the first thing they did was set up a special committee to investigate the actions of the Department of Justice and its subordinate authorities, such as the federal police, the FBI. Republicans argue that Democrats have politicized these judicial officials, whose independence is valued in the United States.
In practice, this new Republican special committee, empowered with very broad powers, seems to be trying to protect one person in particular, that is, former President Trump, from prosecution. That, if anything, speaks volumes about Trump’s exceptional power in the Republican Party.
Trump’s political position is therefore weak and strong at the same time. The majority of Americans seem to be a bored showman who still talks mostly about himself. But among his own he remains a superior figure.
Sources: e.g. NYTimes, WP, The Hill, Economist, Reuters, FIveThirtyEight.