Finland will definitely qualify for the European Championship further qualification, if not actually qualifying for the competition place will not open up. In the current situation, Finland would have to beat Ukraine or Israel in order to get to Germany.
Finland meets Kazakhstan in the men’s European Championship qualifier on Tuesday at 19:00. The live broadcast on TV2, Areena and the app starts at 18:15.
Huhkaji’s back door to the European football championships was strengthened on Sunday, when Scotland secured their place in the European Championship after Spain defeated Norway.
Finland now has a chance to get to next year’s European Championship through the further qualification, even if there is no place from the actual qualification. After Saturday’s loss to Slovenia, Finland’s chances for the European Championships through the actual qualification are no longer in their own hands.
What is Huhkajie’s back gate?
A total of 24 teams will play in the European Football Championship in Germany next year. The best two from each of the ten qualifying groups go to the games. Germany, on the other hand, gets to the games directly as the host.
The last three places will be decided in the European Championship play-offs. 12 teams can enter this back gate based on the results of the previous Nations League.
12 teams form 3 paths. The winners of these paths get to the European Championships.
The formation of paths starts from the C level of the League of Nations. Among the best teams there, Turkey has already secured its place in the competition and Greece is going to the competition with the current results. Georgia, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan are fighting for a place in the C-path.
Kazakhstan, who won some surprising scalps in Finland’s qualifying group, is already strongly pushing for further qualification.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Ukraine and Israel would probably also be involved in Finland’s further qualification path, or the so-called B-path.
From the A level of the Nations League, almost all countries have either secured their place in the European Championships or are locked in a place in the competition through the actual qualifiers. Only three countries, Croatia, the Netherlands and Poland, would be left without a place in the competition and go to further qualification. According to the rules of the European football association Uefa, the fourth country for the further qualification of the A path would be Estonia, the winner of the D level of the Nations League.
Against Ukraine or Israel?
Finland’s road to the European Championships through the EC further qualifiers is also challenging. Finland should win two matches within a week in the qualifiers to be played at the end of March. With these prospects, Finland would face Bosnia-Herzegovina in the first match away from home. If it turned out to be a victory, Finland would receive the winner of the Ukraine-Israel match in the current situation.
The duo is interesting in that sense, as both countries are currently at war. On Saturday, Ukraine played its home match against North Macedonia in the European Championship qualifiers in Prague, Czech Republic. In November, Ukraine will play its last qualifying home match in Italy in Leverkusen, Germany.
Israel’s October qualifying games, on the other hand, were postponed due to the war in Gaza. Israel was supposed to play a home game against Switzerland on Thursday in Tel Aviv. Sunday’s away match against Kosovo was also postponed because the Israeli authorities currently do not allow their national teams to travel abroad.
So Finland would very likely play the match that decides the place in the competition on a neutral field. Home advantage may still open up for Finland if Israel or Ukraine grab a direct competition spot. In this case, Finland would rise to the top two in the B-path further qualifying place ranking.
Situations in the blocks of Ukraine and Israel
Of course, Finland can still qualify directly for the European Championships, but it requires Finland to win all three of the last qualifying games and Slovenia to lose points. Even a loss against Denmark is enough for Slovenia to qualify for the tournament if Slovenia wins against Northern Ireland and San Marino.
If, on the other hand, Slovenia were to draw on Tuesday or lose away to Northern Ireland and lose away to Denmark in November, Finland would clinch a place in the competition by winning their remaining three games against Kazakhstan, San Marino and Northern Ireland.
The situation in Finland’s qualifying group
17.10.
Finland–Kazakhstan at 19:00
Northern Ireland–Slovenia at 21:45
San Marino – Denmark at 21:45
17.11.
Kazakhstan–San Marino at 17:00
Finland–Northern Ireland at 19:00
Denmark–Slovenia at 21:45
20.11.
Northern Ireland–Denmark at 21:45
Slovenia–Kazakhstan at 21:45
San Marino–Finland at 21:45
Finland can also end up on the A path of the further qualifiers. That could happen in the event that Croatia or the Netherlands from the A-level teams of the Nations League get directly to the European Championships. At that time, the A-path will be completed by drawing from the B-level teams either Finland, Ukraine or Iceland.
In this case, Finland would face Wales in the first qualifying match and the winner of the match between Poland and Estonia in the deciding match for the place.
The situations of the Dutch, Croatian and Polish blocks
The Finnish camp is not yet thinking about the further qualification place.
– I only heard about it a quarter of an hour ago. Of course it’s a nice thing, but that’s not what we’re thinking about yet. It’s great that we have such an opportunity. However, we still have three big games left in the qualifiers. Now the full focus is on the match against Kazakhstan, on Finland’s core players Jere Uronen stated on Monday afternoon to Urheilu.
This is the third time this qualifying format has been used. Hungary, Slovakia, Scotland and North Macedonia qualified for the previous European Championships in 2021.
Drama was seen in the corresponding two-part further qualification for the 2022 World Cup, when Italy immediately lost to North Macedonia. However, Portugal took the place by defeating North Macedonia in the decisive second match. Sweden, on the other hand, lost to Poland and Wales defeated Ukraine in the second qualifying game that decided the place in the World Cup.