Since Monday morning December 12, in Macronie, everyone, or almost, has had a wet finger. Everyone, or almost, can only rely on him to try to explain the surprise of this beginning of the week. And this, for a good reason: most of the members of the government, their advisers and the parliamentarians of the majority discovered the postponement of the presentation of the pension reform to January 10 on the job, when Emmanuel Macron announced the news during the plenary session of the National Refoundation Council. Not a note, not a word; not even for government spokesperson Olivier Véran who, Sunday noon, guest of the Grand Jury on RTL, still affirmed that Elisabeth Borne would take care of it this Thursday, December 15 without fail.
“Macron took everyone off guard, but it’s becoming a habit, it’s not the first or the last time”, chuckles a majority executive in the Assembly, elected since 2017. After several exchanges during the week -end, the Head of State and the Prime Minister secretly made this decision during a meeting on Sunday afternoon, in the company of the Minister of Labor Olivier Dussopt. “It’s a tactical withdrawal”, claim those close to Emmanuel Macron to anyone who will listen. Tactics? But for what gains on arrival? The president, follower of the blows of brilliance, makes a bet which can be transformed into goal against its camp.
Among the justifications, there is an official one. Emmanuel Macron explained the postponement of the presentation of the pension reform by the holding of professional elections in the public service and a context where “several political parties have had to experience elections in recent days and have changed [… ] leaders”. Far be it from us to minimize the victory of Marine Tondelier at the European Ecology Congress – The Greens, but it was undoubtedly more a question of that of Éric Ciotti at the head of the Republicans, who are reluctant still to vote on the text at the Palais Bourbon. The gesture of politeness is noticed, but the election of the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes does not change – and will not change – anything in the situation. The argument brings a smile, even a mischievous laugh to several ministerial advisers who discovered the change of gear of the president. “Pullimpinpin powder”, as an eminent political leader would say: this agenda known to all for weeks cannot be at the origin of such an abrupt decision.
The fear of a social December
More informally, the explanations accumulate without competing with each other. For some, the president would have decided not to make pensions a subject of tension served at meals on Christmas Eve and New Year’s Eve, preferring to leave the French people the respite of the holidays and the joy of a possible victory in the World Cup. of football. For others, this is a new helping hand to the trade union organizations with which Élisabeth Borne and Olivier Dussopt regularly clash; both wishing, according to several sources, to obtain more time to find “paths of passage”. “This will allow us to work on a few subjects”, is content to comment Olivier Dussopt to L’Express.
In particular, as a ministerial adviser suggests, the third block of negotiations, which includes the balance of the system, in particular that of the civil servants’ system. Finally, the lieutenants of François Bayrou, who once again distinguished himself by criticizing in the JDD the lack of pedagogy of the government on this file, are convinced of its influence: “It is not for nothing in this postponement of a month, its arguments weighed”, textotée a MoDem deputy Monday evening.
However, giving time is also giving hope. And the opponents of the text on the pension reform, will not be less virulent after a month of further discussions with the executive. Admittedly, now that the ball is in their court, it will be easier for the government to blame them for the failure of the negotiations… But if the fear of a social December could have made the Head of State tremble, according to several macronists, he risks an even more complicated January.
A double-edged strategic retreat
The same goes for parliamentarians from his own camp. Within Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons, all are convinced of the need for pension reform to safeguard the pay-as-you-go system, but many deputies hope to obtain small advances during this additional period of time. For the left wing, we say we are firm on the ambitions of social justice, linked to the consideration of hardship or long careers. At the MoDem, several parliamentarians around the president of the group Jean-Paul Mattei intend to move forward on other forms of financing the system, such as a greater contribution of capital to national solidarity. “The president may have felt that the majority, at least a part, will be vigilant and demanding on the subject”, advances an elected Renaissance. “I cannot imagine that this postponement is explained solely by small political considerations. It is too important a text for the rest of the quinquennium: this additional time must lead to something interesting. If we can review a little doxa, that suits me”, slips a MoDem deputy.
Admission of weakness? Procrastination welcome? The decision taken on the sly by Emmanuel Macron turns out to be a double-edged sword concerning this “mother of battles” whom he has been dragging for six years now. It is only in a month that we will know if he was right to surprise his world. But on January 10, it should not be believed that a “tactical” move only hid, in reality, a lack of strategy.