A small number of Ukrainian forces, mostly without vehicles, have crossed over to the Russian-controlled side of the Dnieper River at Kherson in Ukraine. The first reports of the development came a few weeks ago. Recently, Russia also admitted that Ukrainian forces had crossed the river.
— We have seen the first images of a small amount of vehicles that Ukrainians have taken to the other side of the river, but it will be difficult for Ukraine to achieve something larger without putting more resources into the offensives, says Ilmari Käihkö, associate professor of military science at the Defense University.
Difficult logistics
It is difficult to assess the situation in the area. That Ukraine has managed to get vehicles across the river is seen as a sign that the country wants to try to establish a more permanent presence there. It is a prerequisite for being able to move forward in the same direction. But the logistics are a big challenge. Getting new Ukrainian forces there and supplying them with fuel, ammunition, medicine and other things is complicated, as is bringing back the wounded.
There are reports that Ukraine has taken a stretch of about three miles along the Dnieper River. Ilmari Käihkö considers it unlikely because it would require very large Ukrainian forces.
— Then the next question is how deep you have gone, i.e. to the south. I’ve seen reports of five or seven kilometers, but we don’t know if that’s true either. Then you have to remember that Russian artillery reaches about four miles, so you have to get far enough to protect the city of Kherson and the communities on the Ukrainian-controlled side.
Sandbags protect the post office in Kherson a year after Ukrainian soldiers retook the city from Russian forces.
What the development at the river actually looks like is also difficult to assess, as there is a lack of independent data from the area. It remains to be seen what Ukraine ultimately succeeds in doing, points out Ilmari Käihkö. The country’s goal with the offensive is partly political, to maintain the narrative of constant development in a situation where the country does not have much other good news to bring, he assesses.
Ukraine also wants to prevent the Russian forces from being able to fire artillery fire on the city of Kherson and other communities.
— The only way Ukraine can try to prevent this is to push the Russians out of artillery range. After that, Russia can continue to attack from the air, but this is something that requires more resources. It is much cheaper to shoot artillery fire than to start shooting missiles, of which Russia does not have many, says Ilmari Käihkö.