TV4’s foreign commentator Marika Griehsel answers three questions after Foreign Minister Tobias Billström’s interview with TV4.
Erdogan says the vote on Sweden’s approval will take place in October. Billström says it can happen “at any time”? What applies?
– It is difficult to know exactly when the ratification will take place, but if Erdogan were to set up further obstacles, the already weak trust of the Western countries in the Turkish president will be completely undermined. Billström and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg trust that the public handshake between Kristersson, Erdogan and Stoltenberg is a binding agreement.
Is there a rift between Erdogan and the Turkish foreign minister? They seem to give different pictures of when the ratification might happen?
– It is not likely that there is a rift, but Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is said to have told Foreign Minister Billström at the final stage of the meeting in Vilnius that the parliament in Ankara can open at any time. It will be closed for the summer from next week and will reopen in October, but parliamentarians can be called in.
– But one reason why Erdogan stated October for ratification may be that several Turkish parliamentarians, not least the most conservative ones, believe that it is important to give the appearance that it is the parliament that makes the final decision on Swedish membership and that they are not controlled by President Erdogan.
– In practice, it is the president who gives the go-ahead, and Erdogan also said during his closed press conference in Vilinius that ratification should be prioritized. Both Sweden and Turkey’s government representatives want to appear as if they have full control over the situation and they also speak to different target groups. Billström wants to assure a Swedish audience that the Kristersson government is successful and that the partners are at the end of twelve months of intensive negotiations. The Turkish side possibly wants to try to get more out of other NATO members, for example information about buying the F-16 fighter plane from the United States.
Should Billström be interpreted as saying that it is clear that Turkey will approve Sweden’s NATO application when he says that there is “a handshake”? Or is it still uncertain?
– There is really no reason to believe that ratification will not take place, the only question is when. What could possibly delay the process are further Koran burnings and today’s decision in the Supreme Court, where the court states that it is not possible to omit two people whom Turkey considers to be connected to the Gülen movement.
– Sweden considers that it has met the Turkish requirements, including closer cooperation between the two countries’ security services, police in the fight against terrorism and gang crime.
It is extremely important for President Erdogan to show that, through his leadership, he is enabling Turkey to approach the European market. Hence the outcome earlier this week when Erdogan demanded that Sweden work to revive the interrupted negotiations around EU membership for Turkey and also ease the EU’s visa rules for Turkish citizens as well as better customs agreements.
– Even if EU membership and belonging to NATO do not directly go together, Erdogan takes the opportunity to use that rhetoric because he serves his own purposes in relation to the opinion at home.
Turkey is grappling with 40 percent inflation. The economic situation is significantly more important to the population than the issue surrounding Sweden’s NATO membership.