Dozens of new engaged every day. Despite his participation in negotiations with the United States for a very hypothetical ceasefire in Ukraine, Russia by Vladimir Putin seems far from renouncing its military objectives. Among his ambitions? Drastically increase the number of soldiers mobilizable on the front, a sine qua non -pursuit of the war, launched by the invasion of its neighbor more than three years ago. As documented by several scientific works, but also many journalistic surveys, a significant increase in the number of volunteers ready to fight in Ukraine is noted in recent weeks in Russia.
High recruitment rate
The German researcher Janis Kluge, deputy chief of the division “Eastern Europe and Eurasie” at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), conducts many research on these recruitment dynamics driven by the Kremlin. This specialist in Russia has managed to establish a model to understand the evolution of the number of newly committed soldiers, month a month, detailed in an article Posted on April 13. According to his calculations, based on the analysis of official Russian partial data, he estimates “with a high degree of confidence” than about “1,000 to 1,500” new contracts were signed every day in Russia during the month of March to replenish military troops, against 600 per day a year ago.
A high recruitment rate, which results from an initial will of the Kremlin to drastically increase its forces on the front. Since last December, governors of the various Russian regions have been pushed to accelerate the enrollment of new volunteers. After having suffered many human losses since the start of the conflict, Moscow would need 30,000 new soldiers each month to have the capacity to continue his war. According to Washington, around 790,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in combat since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. 600,000 others are today mobilized on the battlefield, according to the same source. Impossible to precisely verify these data, Russia not communicating on its real losses.
Colossal signature bonuses
One certainty: the Russian authorities multiply strategies to facilitate the enrollment of new soldiers in its ranks. On the other hand, not all regions do not opt for the same approach. Many oblasts bet on the economic argument. For several months, the increase in the amount of bonuses at the signature has finally convinced certain men hitherto reluctant to commit. Last fall, the territory of Khanty-Mansiïsk, in the center of the country, already promised for example more than 25,000 euros in gratuity for any new integration of the army-in addition to an annual salary estimated at around 50,000 euros.
In Siberia, in the Irkutsk region, nearly 15,000 euros in bonus are promised to each new man recruited, as reported in a report by Siberia Realitiesan independent media affiliated with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL). A few months ago, this amount only amounted to just under 4,300 euros. Until the authorities decide in mid-March to multiply it by 2.5 to accelerate the number of requests to join the army. “This is supposed to be what they pay to you to die. Or kill. It depends on the result, I imagine,” said Sergei, one of these volunteers, questioned by journalists of this local antenna.
The recent geopolitical context, marked by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the opening of talks between Washington and Moscow, is also one of the parameters capable of pushing certain individuals to say to be ready to fight. “Speculations on American-Russian negotiations and a possible end of the war attract opportunists who hope to pocket a huge bonus in the signing while avoiding the deadly fights of the Donbass,” deciphers Janis Kluge in his analysis. The researcher assesses the current share of Russian investments in the signing bonuses alone at around 2 billion rubles per day, or more than 21 million euros. A colossal figure, which includes both the money paid by the federal government and the regional authorities.
Propaganda and alternatives
Despite everything, with such expenses, the financial lever should not be enough for Russia for a long time to extend its recruitment policy. In the Moscow region, the restart of more increased propaganda in order to encourage citizens of the capital to volunteer. The independent Russian media Verstka interviewed several sources supporting this information. “At the end of last year, they suddenly began to reduce all campaigns, banners and leaflets, but now they intensify them again,” said in this article A person working in the Russian administration.
According to the same source, the announcement of the opening of Russian-American discussions, coupled with the announcement of the Ukrainian decline in the Russian region of Koursk, contributed to a considerable increase in the number of agreements to serve the army. In detail, the website reports that 993 people signed a commitment contract from April 1 to 10, against only 499 over the first ten days of March and 503 over the same period in February. Center detailed to the latest events or engagement of a new dynamic? The analysis of the data for the coming months should make it possible to quickly answer this question.
Nation with a demographic reservoir increasingly limited in recent decades, Russia has currently found alternatives to meet its needs on the battlefield. The Kremlin did not hesitate to support the recruitment of prisoners, sometimes dangerous, to go fight. A law was also passed in September in the Russian Parliament to allow the abandonment of criminal proceedings against any person agreeing to go to the front. The military support of Pyongyang also allowed Moscow to have a reservoir of 14,000 North Korean soldiers in addition to its regular troops. Just like the military recourse to certain Chinese, Nepalese and Yemeni mercenaries.
To further expand the number of people possibly mobilized, the exemption rules concerning patients with certain mental pathologies could also be widely reviewed. One of the tracks? According to RFE/RL, the Russians suffering from “serious” psychiatric problems, for example linked to mood or stress disorders, could finally be declared to combat soon. Symbol, there too, of the incredible Russian ability not to kiss too many recruitment conditions to increase its power in the field.
“Despite significant losses on the battlefield, the Russian military force is reconstructed and increased more at a faster level than most analysts had anticipated,” warned in a hearing in the American Senate in early April the General Christopher Cavoli, command of the United States in Europe. Beyond the question of human military reserves, Russia still survives the imposing financial sanctions on its trade, having turned a good part of its economy towards the war effort.