Published: Less than 30 min ago
During the night, the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine collapsed, something that may be in Russia’s interest.
The increased water levels in the river could both make an offensive more difficult and give Russia a chance to regroup.
– They want to prevent Ukrainian crossing over the river Dnieper, says Peter Lidén, lieutenant colonel at the Defense Academy.
A large number of villages have been flooded, relief efforts have been sent to the region and people have been evacuated using buses and trains.
Both Russia and Ukraine claim that the other party destroyed the dam during the night. Peter Lidén, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy, believes that it is in Russia’s interest to destroy the dam.
– I think that there is concern on the Russian side about the Ukrainian offensive, and quite rightly so, says Peter Lidén.
Lies in Russian interests
Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lidén believes that there are several reasons why Russia wanted to blow up the dam.
– As I see it, it is clearly in Russian interest, this was prefigured when they fled from the western part of Kherson and the city last fall. Since October, the dam building has been prepared for blasting, says Peter Lidén.
Russia then did not trigger the explosive charges that were deployed.
– But now that the offensive is underway and they want to prevent a Ukrainian crossing over the river Dnieper, they do it, says Peter Lidén.
He believes that Russia has now destroyed the only fixed transition. The road on the dam has been destroyed before, but it was still possible to cross.
– Then it also becomes more difficult to cross the river to the south, with built military bridges or boats. It won’t be as easy now that the river is wider and the currents are stronger, says Peter Lidén.
Lidén now believes that plans for a water crossing on the part of Ukraine must be revised. However, he does not believe that there was any major plan to cross the river with large units, as it could be associated with great risks.
The high water flows to the south also give Russia a new chance to regroup.
– The Russians want to redistribute units along the river to defend against a possible Ukrainian transition. They want to use units further east, where the offensive now takes terrain to the south, says Peter Lindén.
May have given up on the idea of Crimea
When the full-scale Russian invasion began and parts of Kherson were taken, Russia filled the Crimean Canal with water.
It was drained eight years ago by Ukraine, to stop access to fresh water in the then newly annexed Crimean peninsula.
As the Kakhovka dam has now burst, Crimea is having problems with its fresh water supply again, which affects both agriculture and industry, according to Peter Lindén.
– You could see it as part of Russia understanding that they will not be able to hold Crimea. Because it will be unbearable without fresh water, says Peter Lindén.
“Another war crime”
The consequences of the damaged dam could be devastating. In addition to the humanitarian consequences that affect the residents of the area, there are also economic ones.
– It is another war crime in the same pattern that we have seen. It’s a big deal and it means additional financial pressure and greater war reparations for Russia when this war is over, says Peter Lindén.
At the same time, Peter Lindén points out that the major consequences in the short term are the humanitarian ones.
– It affects a lot of people who now actually live in the occupied areas. But also in Kherson and down in the river delta.