Growth in France is better than expected between April and June 2023. What are the reasons for this improvement? What are the risks for the future? While Germany barely manages to emerge from last winter’s recession, France’s performance surprised many.
3 mins
After rising 0.1% at the start of the year, French GDP jumped 0.5%. The figures surprised the National Institute of Statistics, but not Bruno Le Maire.
The effort paid off
The French Minister of Economy greeted on RTL remarkable performance of the French economy: ” It is due to the employees, it is due to the entrepreneurs, it is due to the workers in the new factories that we have opened, there have been more than 300 since 2017. It is the effort of the French. This is bearing fruit because we have created with the President of the Republic the conditions for national economic success. These conditions are more attractive taxation, it is training, qualification, it is support for industrial companies, it is innovation, it is investment. All of this produces results. »
A new situation
Results, here they are. For the first time, French growth is driven more by exports than by consumption, confirms Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset Management : “ It is in particular exports of industrial boats which were significant over the last quarter and which explain this very particular movement. So much the better if this compensates for the contraction in consumption. This is good news, but it also reflects the ability of the French economy to export slightly more complex goods to meet the demands of other countries. »
More autonomous growth in the future
Could this engine of growth hold up against the sluggish global economy? Hard to know. Indeed, other levers will have to be found for more sustained growth through consumption and business investment. For the moment, we observe a sort of paradox: on the one hand, industrial production in France is rather robust. But on the other hand, the morale of business leaders is falling. What the ECB survey confirms: demand for corporate credit in the euro zone is falling. But here again, France is an exception:
” Despite this negative context, French companies continue to invest. What Christine Lagarde evoked [NDLR : lors de la conférence de presse après la réunion du Conseil des gouverneurs de la BCE] is more on a European scale. But in France, we have news that is reassuring. Companies continue to invest, they adapt. No one gives up in this somewhat adverse, somewhat negative environment. »
The war in Ukraine and inflationary risks
It is also an environment that remains uncertain primarily due to the war in Ukraine and inflationary risks. But despite this, the French government is betting on growth of 1% over one year in 2023. A goal that seems perfectly achievable to Philippe Waechter: “ At the end of the second quarter, what we have already achieved in terms of growth for 2023 is at 0.8%. This means that only 0.2% remains to be done. We have a fairly strong probability of achieving this objective. »
A growth target that remains far from the 2.5% achieved in 2022.