The military alliance must be strong. If there were weaknesses, they would not be shown. NATO is now under heavy pressure from different directions.
On Tuesday and Wednesday next week in Vilnius, Lithuania, the leaders of 31 allied countries will meet in a tense security situation. The leaders last met last summer in Madrid, a few months after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The situation is even more difficult than at that time. NATO countries have supported Ukraine, which is fighting alone against Russia, and elsewhere in Europe, ammunition stocks have dwindled in some places. There is no end in sight to the uncertain situation, and more resources than before must be put into equipment and readiness.
In NATO, a common vision is not created by voting, but by agreement. In that case, skillful diplomacy and credible arguments are needed.
In this article, we predict which meeting topics will be the most significant for the leaders of different countries.
President Niinistö’s first speeches shed light on Finland’s position in NATO
President Sauli Niinistö makes his first speeches to the leaders of other countries belonging to the military alliance.
Previously, Niinistö himself was happy to talk about the development of the European Union’s military dimension. There was a weak reaction from Europe, because most countries had organized their defense through NATO.
Now, as the president of a fully-fledged NATO country, Niinistö is influencing how NATO remains strong and how safe Europe is.
Finland’s NATO line has both permanent elements of foreign policy and something new. The permanent thing is that Finland does not want to be the center of attention in NATO or make drastic overtures, but instead stays on a consensus-seeking middle path – in the same way as is often the case in the politics of the European Union.
The new thing is that the club has partly changed. The foundation of Finland’s foreign policy collapsed when Russia attacked neighboring Ukraine. NATO is now the reference framework for the rapidly formed new foreign and security policy.
There are three important goals on Finland’s list for the meeting: Sweden must be brought into NATO as quickly as possible.
Another vital goal for Finland is that support for Ukraine continues, and that Russia does not win the war. This is related to the third goal of the meeting, building a strong and united military union.
Militarily, like other countries, Finland must promise NATO troops that will be used in the event of a real situation. For itself, with the help of NATO countries, it hopes for the abilities it lacks: for example, a broader picture of the situation.
Finland differs from other countries on the eastern edge in at least one respect – it is not demanding ground forces from other countries.
Estonia’s Kaja Kallas demands stronger support for the eastern edge
Prime Minister of Estonia Kaja Kallas was one of the names mentioned when looking for a successor to the current NATO Secretary General. The choice was again aimed at Jens Stoltenberg. Kallas himself estimated that one of the reasons for this was his loud demands about Russia, Ukraine and defense spending.
– I have been very vocal about these issues, and I come from the eastern edge. And even though we have been in NATO for 20 years, I believe that there are still countries that are… more suitable, Kallas said on the BBC in May.
The reason for the loudness of Estonia and other Baltic countries is their position in NATO’s front line. NATO has troops in eight countries on the eastern edge, but not enough in the Baltics’ opinion.
The NATO countries have already found a common understanding before the meeting that the number of troops in the countries will be increased. Their combined strength is being increased from the current, estimated around 10,000 to three or even five times.
In case of a crisis situation, NATO has other plans, which talk about significantly larger forces. These plans are secret.
The Baltics put a relatively large amount of money into their own defense and demand the same from others.
According to Estonia’s view, the best security guarantee for Ukraine would be a quick and direct path to NATO membership. The majority of the allied countries are more cautious.
Turkey’s Erdogan’s dealings are already making others nervous
Turkey managed to screw up Finland’s NATO membership. In retrospect, it is difficult to assess what Turkey really wanted. Maybe, for example, aircraft deals with the United States, but they have not materialized so far.
Sweden is now a hostage of Turkey. According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the country has already met the conditions of NATO and Turkey. Turkey’s view on the matter is different: Sweden will only become a member when Turkey is satisfied. Turkey’s concerns are related, among other things, to the Kurdish community in Sweden and terrorism, and Turkey connects these to its own interpretation of meeting NATO’s membership requirements.
Sooner or later – maybe in Vilnius – things start to slip. President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Prime Minister of Sweden Ulf Kristersson are negotiating in Vilnius on the eve of the summit.
Stopping Sweden’s membership is a commodity for Turkey when it negotiates with other NATO countries. Turkey still wants to buy F16 fighter jets from the United States. Turkey would also like the straits leading from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean to be named Turkish straits on maps. Turkey’s idea is to control the flow. In addition, it has something to say about the position of Cyprus.
Since NATO’s activities are based on consensus, attempts have been made to respond to Turkey’s concerns. General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg however, when meeting with the media before the meeting, he reminded that the concerns of other countries about why Sweden is not already in NATO must also be heard.
Turkey’s location is geostrategically important, and NATO does not want to let it slip into the wrong company. Turkey’s relationship with Russia is not frozen, like many other NATO countries.
For these reasons, Erdogan, who was recently re-elected as the president of Turkey, is one of the most watched figures at the meeting.
Biden is not only worried about Russia
The word of the US president carries the most weight in NATO. The United States is the largest funder and military power of the military alliance. It has also given Ukraine more armed support than Europe combined.
President Joe Biden has spoken tirelessly in favor of Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership. The task is unfinished until Sweden is officially a member.
The country led by Biden has also taken responsibility for defending Europe and, on the other hand, has helped Europe stand on its own two feet. The previous president Donald Trump’s during the United States loudly demanded European countries to bear more responsibility for their own defense.
European countries are now increasing their defense spending. According to NATO’s latest statistics, last year approximately one in three members spent at least two percent of their gross domestic product on defense. Two percent is the goal set by NATO for its allies. NATO has already agreed that in the future all countries will use at least two percent.
Russia’s military power is now directed at Ukraine, but when the war is over, Russia is still a threat – especially at sea, in the air and in space. It is building up its defenses again to the same capacity as before the war in Ukraine.
– We should never underestimate Russia and their ability to recover, as history has repeatedly shown, said the head of NATO’s military committee Rob Bauer Under the Vilnius meeting.
The United States has other concerns. The strained relationship with China and potential threats in the Indo-Pacific region take its attention. Representatives of Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand will also visit Vilnius. European countries’ own responsibility would free up US resources from Europe to other places.
At least during Biden’s reign, the United States does not leave Europe to its own devices and still supports Ukraine. A year from now there will be a presidential election in the United States, and that may also affect NATO policy.
Zelenskyi wants Ukraine in NATO, but what is the answer to him?
The meeting in Vilnius becomes even more electrified when the president of Ukraine arrives Volodymyr Zelenskyi. The connection between Ukraine and NATO was also brought up by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg when talking about the goals of the upcoming meeting (see the video at the end of the article).
NATO has promised in 2008 that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance. Now Ukraine is fighting for all of Europe against Russia, and wants to join NATO. The member states feel that they should promise something that makes Ukraine’s future membership concrete – without accepting the country as a member immediately. A country at war cannot join NATO, as that would make NATO a party to the conflict.
In Vilnius, the NATO countries will promise that military support will continue. NATO as an organization promises to help financially and promote cooperation in high-level discussions. Instead of the current committee, the Ukrainian issue will be discussed by a council where the leaders of the countries sit. Zelenskyi has already made it clear that this is not enough.
Ukraine itself is important, but it is also a catch; if Russia won the war, the next country could experience the fate of Ukraine.
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