70-year-old Shehbaz Sharif is the leader of PML-N, the Muslim League of Pakistan. He led with other opposition leaders the revolt that overthrew Imran Khan, whom he succeeded as Prime Minister. Three questions for Amélie Blom, lecturer in political science at Sciences Po Lyon and specialist in Pakistan.
RFI : What is the background of Shehbaz Sharif, the new Prime Minister of Pakistan?
Amelie Blom: He is the little brother of Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan. He himself was three times chief minister of the province of Punjab, which is a key position. Pakistan is organized by a federal system, so there are provincial assemblies and Punjab is the most populated in the country. It is also the one from which the majority of the members of the army, both officers and soldiers, originate. Finally, if Karachi is the economic lung of the country, Lahore is the political lung.
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Shehbaz Sharif is therefore this veteran of Pakistani political life who reaches the supreme office thanks to a series of political opportunities that have presented themselves to him. He has shown that he is also a very good strategist throughout this crisis. He, like the entire Sharif family, remains very popular among the merchant and middle class of Punjab.
Today, Shehbaz Sharif is at the head of an “anti-Imran Khan” coalition. How can he succeed in overcoming this position of opponent in order to govern?
That’s the big question. This coalition exists on the principle that “the friends of my enemies are my friends”, but it is a coalition that could be relatively fragile. Everything will depend on the distribution of ministries. I think he’s going to be careful to dose, and to give everyone a place.
He would do well to call elections fairly quickly to establish his popularity. Of course, this cannot be done immediately. The Electoral Commission said it was not in a position to organize elections immediately. It is necessary to redraw the electoral districts upstream, which will take time.
How will the new Prime Minister manage to maneuver with Pakistan’s other power, the army?
The military has played a fairly complex role throughout the current crisis. Pakistan is a hybrid political regime, half-democratic, half-authoritarian. There is a sharing of power imposed by the military power, but which many civil parties have ended up accepting. In 2018, Imran Khan was the dream come true for the military. They had finally found a Prime Minister who had visions very similar to theirs, ready to govern in cooperation with the army. It ended badly in the end. He was released by the army and it is this signal that was seized by the opposition to bring him down by the vote of a motion of censure in the National Assembly.
Throughout the duration of the constitutional crisis last week, the military remained fairly discreet. They made no statement. They want a quick way out of the crisis anyway. It is absolutely obvious that if this crisis has this outcome, it is because it is satisfactory for the army. If this was not the case, things would have happened differently.
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Finally, in his declarations, Shehbaz Sharif made it clear that he would not collide with the army on the question of relations with India, for example. He said he would like good relations with India, but on the condition of a fair resolution of the Kashmir dispute. He will therefore not take any unilateral initiative on this subject which had, moreover, put his brother in a very delicate situation vis-à-vis the army when he was Prime Minister. This question of relations with India is a central issue.
Another very important element for the military is the non-interference of civilians in the internal affairs of the army. We will have to follow this question in practice to know whether Shehbaz Sharif, unlike Imran Khan, will remain in the background on questions of appointments within the Pakistani military apparatus.