Russia is preparing for a counterattack against Ukraine. We gathered the events of the war situation in Ukraine, which are worth following right now.
There have been speculations about the time and place of the start of Ukraine’s expected counterattack throughout the spring.
On Tuesday, Russia and Ukraine celebrate Victory Day in honor of the end of World War II. The day has been filled with expectations on both sides about the news of the war success.
We gathered together the events of the war situation in Ukraine, which are worth following right now. Docent of Military Sciences, Aleksanteri Institute Visiting Researcher Ilmari Käihkö rate events for .
1. Russia is preparing for a counterattack against Ukraine
Over the weekend, Russia began evacuating civilians from front-line population centers in the Zaporizhia region. The Atomic Energy Organization IAEA has confirmed that civilians are being evacuated from, for example, Enerhodar, where Europe’s largest nuclear power plant is located.
Käihkö estimates that the region of Zaporizhia is possibly the most important attack direction for Ukraine. Seizing the area would cut off Russia’s land connection between the Crimean peninsula and Donbass and open Ukraine’s connection to the sea. The area is also of economic importance.
According to Käihkö, the evacuation suggests that Russia is afraid of losing control of the territories it has occupied.
– The military reason for these evacuations may be that Russia simply does not trust the residents of the area. There are Ukrainian citizens who support the Kiev regime. These persons could help Ukraine in military operations.
Käihkö also points out that Russia has built fortresses precisely in the Zaporizhia region.
According to the Ukrainian army (you will switch to another service) Russia has also taken property stolen from the residents of the region with them in the evacuation convoys.
The governor who escaped from the occupied Melitopol Ivan Fedorov in turn says (you switch to another service), that Russia has moved its soldiers dressed as civilians under the cover of evacuation convoys. According to Fedorov, the hastily organized evacuations have caused long queues of cars between Melitopol and Crimea.
has not been able to confirm the information.
2. Ukraine is waiting for the best conditions for a counterattack
A counterattack is a big risk for Ukraine. Therefore, it waits for the best possible conditions to launch a counterattack.
So when will Ukraine start its counterattack? Käihkö points out that one must first define what is meant by a counterattack.
– Any kind of softening of the opponent can be considered part of a counterattack.
By softening, Käihkö means blows to Russia’s back. According to the spokesperson of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (you will transfer to another service) for example, the drone attack on a Russian fuel depot on the Crimean peninsula in late April was Ukraine’s preparation for its counterattack.
According to Käihkö, it is possible, even probable, that Ukraine or Russian entities supporting Ukraine are also behind the sabotage attacks on Russian rail traffic.
– We certainly don’t know this. However, these strikes have clearly benefited Ukraine.
In order for the actual ground attack to begin, the President to Volodymyr Zelensky according to Käihkö, must be in Ukraine. The ground must also be sufficiently load-bearing.
In addition, Käihkö estimates that Ukraine expects to have all possible equipment at its disposal.
– The longer Ukraine waits, the better Russia will have time to prepare.
3. On the day of victory, all eyes will turn to Bahmut
According to Ukraine, Russia aims to capture the city of Bahmut by Tuesday, i.e. Victory Day.
Victory Day is especially a big national holiday in Russia, when the country’s leadership would like to share good news from the front, according to Käihkö.
– Of course, Ukraine wants to make sure by all means that this does not happen.
The war situation in Bahmut has been stagnant for months.
– Russia seems to have regained some of its positions, but in practice this means a block or two. Ukrainian forces have persisted and denied victory to Russia.