Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö anticipates that Russia will strengthen in relation to Ukraine this year.
– Inevitably, you won’t hear much about Ukraine’s successes, at least in the beginning of the year, Käihkö says in a phone interview with .
The background is a gradual change in power relations. The Russian military industry is running at full capacity and its production will increase even more this year. In addition, Russia has acquired weapons from North Korea.
At the same time, the West is being chased, and in particular the domestic political dispute in the United States has stalled the military support given to Ukraine.
Power relationships are concretely told by how Ukraine and Russia can afford to use artillery ammunition.
– Russia can currently shoot up to five times more than Ukraine. That is, if Ukraine can fire 2,000 rounds a day, then Russia can fire 10,000, says Käihkö.
According to Käihkö, Russia’s superiority is significant. The change from last year is also notable, because when Ukraine attempted a counterattack in August-September, it was still able to use more artillery ammunition than Russia.
– Russia’s fivefold superiority is a really worrying situation for Ukraine, says Käihkö.
Despite the superiority in ammunition, Russia’s own losses are constantly very heavy, and it has not been able to conquer significant new areas despite a fierce attempt.
In the long run, the balance of power can be balanced by the material support of Western countries and other supporters of Ukraine. However, it is unclear whether, for example, ammunition production in the West can be increased quickly. In terms of the course of the war, it would be decisive.
– Without significant ammunition superiority, it is not expected that Ukraine would be able to launch a large-scale counterattack, says Käihkö.
In Ukraine, the problem is known and acknowledged. Ammunition production is also being increased domestically. Russia also knows that, which constantly attacks Ukraine’s arms industry with missiles.
Ukraine also needs more anti-aircraft missiles
In addition to the artillery ammunition shortage, the Russian missile threat is an acute problem. Again, the bottleneck is aid from the West.
– The production of Western anti-aircraft missiles has not grown nearly in the same proportion as Russia’s capability. This is a single issue that should be paid more attention to, says Käihkö.
Ukraine’s successful missile strikes against Russian troops, especially in Crimea, have received more publicity in Finland and elsewhere in the West.
– It’s a bit ironic that when Russia took over Crimea in 2014 because of the naval base, now Russia can’t really use this naval base because of the threat from Ukraine, says Käihkö.
According to Käihkö, the missile strikes on Crimea are a clear success for Ukraine, but success stories are few and far between, as Ukraine’s important land attack failed.
– That’s why the situation in the Black Sea has been emphasized, that it was a rare success on the part of Ukraine last year, says Käihkö.
Ukraine’s most important goal would be to destroy the Kerch Strait bridge and thereby make maintenance of the Crimean peninsula and the front more difficult. The German Taurus missiles might be a good fit for that, but Käihkö thinks that it is wishful thinking that they would turn the tide of the war.
Käihkö estimates that, in any case, Ukraine is already able to significantly limit Russia’s activities in the Black Sea. In addition, Ukraine is able to export grain and other export products to the world by sea, although there is no longer a special agreement with Russia.
Ukraine’s foreign trade, on the other hand, has significant positive multiplier effects, because along with foreign aid, it boosts the country’s economy. When there is money in the economy, the salaries of the soldiers can be paid and the home front does not collapse.
Both are fortifying their positions
According to Käihkö, due to the adversities, Ukraine is facing a politically very difficult decision to take a defensive position in the war.
– Material and manpower shortages force Ukraine to dig in, says Käihkö.
According to Käihkö, Ukrainian soldiers have often admitted that the Russians are Ukrainian stooges to dig defensive positions on the front. It has increased Ukrainian losses in the offensive phase.
Politically, however, it is not easy to tell the people that now we have to dig in positions and focus on defense.
– The digging in inevitably signals that Ukraine will not necessarily take back the occupied territories in the near future, says Käihkö.
At the same time, it would give Russia breathing space to act in the same way.
– It will make attacks on Ukraine, i.e. the liberation of territories, much more difficult in the future. And the war really turns into a war of position even more than it is at the moment, says Käihkö.
Front lines solidify and attacks become more difficult.
– The situation benefits Russia more than Ukraine. This is the biggest risk for Ukraine. At the same time, it is militarily smart for Ukraine, partly because Ukraine has no alternative, says Käihkö.
Business launch is planned on both sides
Either side can try to gain an advantage by pushing more and more soldiers into the war. However, a possible move raises doubts among political decision-makers in both Kyiv and Moscow, because the return of soldiers home in zinc coffins does not increase the decision-makers’ popularity.
Russia is unlikely to decide on the motion before the president Vladimir Putin has secured his extension in the show elections to be held two months from now.
Countries can end up poking each other with moves that don’t necessarily change the balance of power.
Käihkö is pushing Ukraine’s western supporters into action so that Ukraine’s prospects will improve in the future.
– This year we all have to invest in material production if we want to support Ukraine. Next year, Ukraine should have better opportunities to attack again, he says.
According to Käihkö, there is no solution to the war in sight.
– There is no end in sight, but both are clearly preparing for a long war. The war has become a battle of wills, which all protracted wars inevitably are, says Käihkö.