PRIME MINISTER. Can the Prime Minister be worried about the legislative elections? While the presidential camp only has a relative majority, Elisabeth Borne wants to stay in Matignon but the opposition demands the appointment of a new Prime Minister.
[Mis à jour le 20 juin 2022 à 11h43] Will a new Prime Minister be appointed soon? The legislative elections ended on Sunday June 19, granting a relative majority of 245 seats out of 577 to the presidential camp. A scenario that weakens the executive and the head of government Elisabeth Borne who, in view of her victory in Calvados, has met the criteria to stay at Matignon. Yet on the opposition side, the Nupes, the National Rally and even some Republicans attack the legitimacy of Emmanuel Macron’s right arm and call for the appointment of another Prime Minister, in line with the new face of the Assembly. national. But in addition to the demands of the left and the right, will the results of the legislative elections force the President of the Republic to review the organization chart of the government? Response elements.
The Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, forced to resign?
The Prime Minister won the legislative elections in the 6th district of Calvados, obtaining the legitimacy that she had gone to seek in this election, and although it is relative, the majority of the seats in the Assembly still belong to the presidential camp. In fact, therefore, the appointment of Elisabeth Borne at Matignon cannot be called into question. But the legislative elections have reshuffled the cards and redefined the balance of power in politics with a rise of the left thanks to the Nupes, the first opposition group, and that of the extreme right which was able to form a group of 89 deputies behind Marine Le Pen, unheard of. It is in these camps that the call for a change of Prime Minister is heard. “Madame Borne should leave. […] It no longer has the political legitimacy to govern”, estimated the rebellious and deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône, Manuel Bompard on BFM TV on June 20 when the RN mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, considered on France Inter that Elisabeth Borne “is too weakened to be able to stay. There is a crucial choice of Prime Minister to be made, which will allow political continuity and political stability which she will not have”.
These calls in no way oblige Emmanuel Macron to appoint a new Prime Minister or Elisabeth Borne to resign. However, the Matignon tenant should submit a letter of resignation to the Head of State in the coming hours. A “courtesy resignation” wanted by the republican tradition. Edouard Philippe also complied with this use in 2017 and was renamed a few days later. Unless there is a big surprise, Elisabeth Borne should also be reappointed by Emmanuel Macron. If the maintenance of the Prime Minister is the most considered hypothesis, the opposite is not completely excluded. The Head of State could deduce that obtaining a simple relative majority is a signal of disapproval of his policy and his choice of ministers sent by the voters. In this case, he can choose to impute the responsibility for the failure to Elisabeth Borne and not renew her in her duties.
The Prime Minister ousted by a motion of censure?
The opposition is determined to overthrow the government and see someone other than Elisabeth Borne appointed prime minister. Using all the political weapons at their disposal, the rebellious deputies have already announced the filing of a motion of censure against the Borne government during the July 5 session in the Assembly. An initiative to which the Communists have joined but which the Republicans refuse to sign. A refusal which already jeopardizes the chances of the motion of censure to succeed. To be heard, a motion of censure must be adopted by an absolute majority, ie 289 deputies, which implies an alliance between all the opposition forces.
Should a new Prime Minister be appointed after the legislative elections?
After the legislative elections, the only scenario that forces the Head of State to appoint a new Prime Minister is cohabitation, ie a majority opposition group and superior in number of seats to the presidential camp. However, on the evening of Sunday June 19, Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne retained the majority in the National Assembly. Together, they can therefore decide to govern without an absolute majority by concluding agreements on a case-by-case basis or legislative agreements with certain opposition deputies. This is the path that the executive seems to want to take, the Prime Minister having declared after the announcement of the results of the legislative elections: “We will work from tomorrow to build a majority of action, there are no alternatives . […] We will work in dialogue”.
The Prime Minister is therefore preparing to negotiate all the texts with other political forces. An uncomfortable mission, a symptom of a political defeat and a crisis of confidence two months just after Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the presidential election, already halftone and without triumphalism. Negotiations are said to be very frequent given that in the French parliamentary system, all decisions must be adopted by an absolute majority. These are 44 votes that the presidential majority will have to get for each proposal, a situation that risks coming up against political deadlock. “Below ten, he will easily find the necessary allies to make the count. Above twenty, the task looks much more complicated”, explained for L’Express the researcher at the CNRS Bruno Cautrès.
What is certain is that the Prime Minister will always be appointed by the Head of State and that no opposition can claim to choose the identity of the Matignon tenant instead of Emmanuel Macron. “The president chooses the person he appoints prime minister by looking at Parliament. No political party can impose a name on the President,” assured Emmanuel Macron during his speech to the regional press. While it is customary for the President to appoint a Prime Minister from the new majority or for the name to be submitted by this majority of deputies, nothing in the Constitution obliges the President to do so.
However, the President of the Republic, who appoints the Prime Minister according to Article 8 of the Constitution, could see his choice of personality set aside if he does not choose a candidacy approved by the parliamentary majority. Indeed, according to article 49 of this same Constitution, the political group which has a majority of deputies in the National Assembly has a decisive advantage in the choice of the Prime Minister thanks to the motion of censure or the refusal of the trust agreement. It should be noted that this motion of censure must be signed by at least one tenth of the members of the National Assembly” and voted “forty-eight hours after its tabling”.
It is the last resort available to the President for the appointment of the Prime Minister. But is it strategic? Dissolving the Assembly, in addition to being possible only once a year, involves many political risks. Indeed, this dissolution will generate new legislative elections which will bring out a new majority, as explained by the collective Highlighters. And nothing says that this new group of deputies is in agreement with the political project of the Macronist camp. If it were Nupes, for example, the political blockage could be significant, with great difficulty in agreeing on central points: from pension reform to the management of VAT, the disagreement could be complete . And the reforming capacity of the government largely weakened. In any case, this is what happened to Jacques Chirac when he found himself having to cohabit with the socialist Lionel Jospin, after unsuccessful legislative elections for his camp (and triggered by his decision to dissolve the Assembly in 1997 ).
Head of government, the Prime Minister shares executive power with the President of the Republic. He directs the action of the government and sets the main political guidelines. It has two main roles, that of coordinator of government action and exercise of regulatory power.
As coordinator, he must ensure the coherence of the ministry by avoiding that different ministers take initiatives going in opposite directions. In addition, if he is not, in the Constitution, the hierarchical superior of the other ministers, he can propose their dismissal to the President of the Republic in the event of serious misconduct. It has a certain number of facilities and prerogatives that enable it to carry out its role of directing government action. According to Article 20 of the Constitution, it “has the administration”, its own services such as the General Secretariat of the Government located at the Hôtel Matignon and a large number of services attached to it, such as of the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security.
To exercise the regulatory power, he ensures the execution of the laws subject to the signature of the ordinances and decrees deliberated in the Council of Ministers by the Head of State. He may, exceptionally, replace the President as President of the Council of Ministers. Finally, he is responsible for national defense even if, according to the site of French public lifethe main orientations are generally set by the President of the Republic.