After the historic recession suffered in 2020 due to the health crisis (-8%), the rebound was expected. And it does not disappoint. The French economy is recovering – beyond the forecasts made so far – with growth of 7%, unheard of for 52 years, and activity which at the end of the year returned to its pre-crisis level, announced this Friday INSEE. The boss of Bercy, Bruno Le Maire immediately congratulated an “effective” economic policy on the part of the government.
With such growth, France should sign one of the best performances in the euro zone: two points above the average growth estimated at 5%, after, there too, a low of -6.8% in 2020. It is at this level (5%) that Spain is recovering in particular, according to figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This remains well below the 10.8% fall in GDP observed last year on the spot.
Quite logically, the latest forecasts for Germany and Italy are also generally positive. Destatis, the German national statistics office, announced this Friday a recovery of 2.8%, which may appear weaker, but which is logically explained by a less significant decline in 2020, with a fall in GDP to -4 .9% as well as a weaker fourth quarter. For Italy, Itstat predicted growth of 6.3% in early December, after revising its figures upwards several times during the year.
A more measured increase in 2022
France explains its good results by a record drop in unemployment, and the strong increase in the production of goods and services (+7.4%, after -8.5% in 2020). The return to normal of the economy, to a pre-Covid level, is not yet complete, the GDP remains “1.6% below its average level in 2019” according to INSEE. But that could change.
For 2022, the government is counting on further strong growth, more measured, but still at 4% (the Banque de France forecasts 3.6%). This figure seems to depend on the different evolutions of the epidemic, and particularly of the Omicron variant.
The situation is the same in the euro zone, like Italy, which imagines more measured growth in 2022 at 4.7% (-1.6 pt). Two exceptions: Germany, which is betting on a greater increase in its GDP in 2022 than in 2021 (at 3.6%, +0.8 pt), but also Spain, at +7% (+2pt ). Still, this forecast exceeds the expectations of the main economic organizations. The government of Pedro Sanchez had already set the bar high for 2021, with growth of 6.5% which thus proved to be largely overestimated.