A possible cooperation between North Korea and Russia would not bring any lasting benefit to either country, says Arkady Moshes, Program Director of the Institute for Foreign Policy.
Sampo Vaarakallio,
Jani Parkkari
The Russian president will meet in Vladivostok tomorrow Vladimir Putin and the leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un face each other in the face of necessity.
The countries they lead are in dire straits – and they have few friends.
This is how the program director of the Foreign Policy Institute interviewed by analyzed Arkady Moshes.
– Russia has to use the allies it has. North Korea is one of the few countries that recognized the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, Moshes says.
Russia is running out of munitions used in the war in Ukraine, while in North Korea, disciplined by economic sanctions, the people are short of almost everything.
Now it has been speculated that Russia is trying to buy weapons and ammunition from North Korea, especially 152 millimeter artillery shells.
According to Moshes, it is also possible that Russia is trying to acquire rare earth metals from North Korea, which are needed for the country’s own weapons production.
In return, North Korea could get much-needed money, grain, or even the opportunity to export more products to Russia.
– I consider some kind of trade agreement very possible. However, it has been justified, for example, by the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigun during a July visit to North Korea, Moshes says.
According to the researcher, however, the countries are not able to provide each other with any permanent or significant benefits.
Even if North Korea and Russia reach an arms deal, the fight in Ukraine will still require more ammunition and weapons than Russia can currently produce.
At the same time, the strict economic sanctions imposed by the UN on North Korea continue to strangle the country’s economy.
– It would be a momentary relief for both countries, but nothing more permanent, summarizes Moshes.
The Chinese word can solve
The rapprochement between North Korea and Russia is part of wider world politics, centered on the intensifying power struggle between the United States and China.
After attacking Ukraine, Russia has tried to strengthen its relations with China.
So far, however, China has only one formal military ally in the world – North Korea. Through it, Beijing is able to influence South Korea, the United States and, more broadly, the security of Asia without directly challenging Washington.
However, influence does not mean that China dictates North Korea’s foreign policy.
In May last year, China and Russia prevented the UN Security Council from approving the tightening of economic sanctions on North Korea proposed by the United States.
According to Moshes, it would be difficult for North Korea to sell weapons or ammunition to Russia if China really opposed it.
– If China doesn’t want weapons to be sold to Russia, then it’s hard to see them being sold, Moshes thinks.
The idea of trading with Russia irritates the Western powers – and at the same time offers North Korea a new way to fight the UN economic sanctions.
– North Korea can demand an easing of sanctions in exchange for not supplying weapons to Russia, the program director thinks.