This incursion into Africa is surprising. While Kiev’s counter-offensive against the invasion of the Russian army was slipping, members of the Ukrainian special forces were, at the same time, spotted in Sudan, in Omdurman near the capital Khartoum, at the end of the month of september. Information confirmed by a military source consulted by L’Express. According to her, in addition to the dozen soldiers mobilized, other men would be leaving for the East African country in the grip of a violent civil war pitting the Sudanese army against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a local militia led by General Hemetti and supported by the Russian mercenary group Wagner (present in the country since 2017).
As a reminder, on September 20, 2023, video extracts were published in the American press. “Ukrainian special services are probably behind a series of drone strikes near Khartoum” and “are carrying out a ground operation against the RSF,” says a CNN commentator. A few days later, on October 7, the independent investigation network Bellingcat claims to have geolocated the position of a sniper in the mountains of Al-Markhiyat, west of Omdurman, thanks to videos posted on social networks the day before, without being able to confirm its Ukrainian origin.
Finally, on November 6, 2023, the Ukrainian English-speaking newspaper Kyiv Post, in turn broadcasts a video of fighting scenes in a Sudanese town, without specifying the name. In the images, filmed at night by a drone equipped with a thermal camera, we see soldiers fire a rocket launcher in an urban area. The media claims that these are Ukrainian special forces.
“Concordant bundle of clues”
Ukrainian military intelligence said it was unable to “confirm or deny” these facts to the Kyiv Post. Jérôme Clech, teacher at Sciences Po and author of Strategic foresight published by Hermann (2023) considers that there is nevertheless a “body of consistent evidence attesting to the presence of Ukrainian shooters around Khartoum against the power in place”. On the drone videos, consulted by L’Express, we can notably see words written in Ukrainian on the radio control screen. The reaction of Kyrylo Budanov, the head of kyiv’s military intelligence, that “Ukraine will destroy Russian war criminals wherever they are in the world”, reported by the news site Babel.ua, and his lack of denial could also suggest that Ukrainian men are indeed in Sudan, according to Jérôme Clech. How can we explain this Ukrainian presence in Africa, when the country lacks the resources to fight the Russian army on its soil? It is possible that these operations aim to weaken Wagner, who supports armed groups in several countries including the Central African Republic, Mozambique, Mali and Sudan.
Marc Lavergne, emeritus research director at the CNRS and expert on the Arab world, sees the hand of the United States, which advises the Ukrainian special forces. “It’s a symbolic blow for Washington which wants to show that America is there and that Wagner’s Russians are not going to take Africa,” he says.
The profile of the men mobilized would be very specific. “It’s a safe bet that we sent very qualified snipers whose usefulness on the front is less,” continues Marc Lavergne. “They can be used to give tactical lessons to the regular Sudanese army, but also exercise management and advisory functions within the latter.”
Strengthening Africa-Ukraine Relations
These military operations are part of a broader Ukrainian strategy in Africa. Faced with the risk of Western aid disintegrating, and to counter Moscow which continues to advance its pawns, Volodymyr Zelensky launched, at the end of 2022, a diplomatic counter-offensive on this continent. Objective: convince these nations to side with Ukraine, rather than with Russia.
In addition to the planned inauguration of ten new Ukrainian representations on the African continent by Zelensky, several members of the Kiev government, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, have traveled to Africa in recent months. On a more economic level, the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative also aims to strengthen Africa-Ukraine relations. Launched a year ago by Zelensky, during the G20 summit in Bali, it aims in particular to support shipments of wheat to this continent.
The most plausible hypothesis for this presence of Ukrainian special forces in Sudan is therefore for kyiv to “break Russia’s influence in countries which do not support it – and among which Moscow cultivates anti-Western resentment”, assures Jerome Clech.
However, should we expect other Ukrainian operations in Africa? “In theory, Ukraine could seek to carry out actions wherever Wagner is present, explains Jérôme Clech. But in practice, the question arises of the means of the Ukrainian army and especially of its priorities…”.
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