At the entrance to the vast industrial zone, split in two by a wide asphalt road, the wind carries a sweet smell of waffles. A way to remind visitors that they have arrived in Belgian territory. And more precisely in Herentals, a small town east of Antwerp. This is where the French automotive supplier Plastic Omnium produces part of the 18 million tanks for thermal cars that it sells each year throughout the world.
But for months, the factory has been undergoing an overhaul. The machines, which inflate these large plastic parts like balloons, were asked to move to the back of the workshop. Make way for robots capable of unwinding kilometers of carbon fiber to wrap a new type of tank: those of hydrogen vehicles. Laurent Carme, in charge of operations for the “new energies” division, is convinced: the small molecule has a certain future in mobility.
And he’s not the only one who thinks so. Land, air and maritime transport, heavy industries such as chemicals and steel… On paper, the potential for decarbonization of hydrogen is immense. Used for a long time as a basic material in industry – in its gray version, high in CO2 – it also appears to be a promising energy vector when it is green. Its production by electrolysis of water with renewable electricity only emits oxygen. And the vehicles that use it only emit water.
A hydrogen economy in the territories
It was enough for Europe and France to pounce on this miraculous gas. To avoid repeating the fiasco of the photovoltaic sector, which left for China and whose timid rebirth was disrupted by the American Inflation Reduction Act, and to bring about the emergence of an electrolysis sector, Brussels returned to the pot in mid-February , with a third Important Project of Common European Interest (Piiec). The total aid could reach up to 6.9 billion euros.
As of 2020, Paris has drawn up a 7 billion euro plan. With one priority: decarbonize industry by swapping gray hydrogen for green and changing production methods, as in steel. Backed by European aid, the initiative has brought about a host of projects, including mobility. From Laurent Wauquiez in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region to Alain Rousset in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, elected officials have also pulled out all the stops to create “a hydrogen economy” in their territories.
But in recent months, the euphoria aroused by this Grail-like gas has subsided. “There has been a certain excitement on the subject in recent years, with self-sustaining promises by a few players. Now that the technologies are reaching maturity, questions of cost, applications, and market reality naturally arise” , agrees Luc Bodineau, coordinator of the hydrogen program at the Environment and Energy Management Agency (Ademe). Same story with France Hydrogène. “The sector is on the verge of crossing the valley of death. It faces technical realities, but also inflation and a lack of visibility on the price of electricity,” recognizes its president, Philippe Boucly.
Room for progress for electrolyzers
The transition to the industrial scale of the hydrogen sector promises to be eventful. In its revised strategy, the State sets a target of 6.5 gigawatts (GW) of green hydrogen production capacity by 2030. The step forward is enormous. According to France Hydrogène, only 300 megawatts (MW) of projects are in operation, under construction, or have received a final investment decision. Getting projects off the ground is not the only issue. With a high demand for electricity, hydrogen could represent 10 to 20% of final energy consumption in France by 2050. Hence the urgency of deciding on the share given to the molecule in the production of renewable energies.
“The sustainable trajectory in terms of green hydrogen production requires us to go where there is a lot of energy and where it is the cheapest,” warns Matthieu Guesné, CEO of Lhyfe. Hence the fact that the Nantes company is turning to wind power. Its solution is located more than 100 kilometers from the coast, where the wind sources are the greatest. “But today, we are building wind turbines 25 kilometers from the coast for reasons of connection costs, because the cable is very expensive. However, a pipe carrying gas will be much less expensive,” bets Lhyfe, who intends to develop floating electrolyzers.
Which also have their share of challenges to overcome: first and foremost, their performance. The most ambitious promise to provide up to 20,000 tonnes of green hydrogen per year. But technical constraints remain numerous, particularly in the management of the power provided by renewable parks. “There is room for progress in terms of efficiency linked to electrode technology or the increase in the size of the equipment,” recognizes Jean-Baptiste Lucas, the boss of McPhy, a specialist in hydrogen production and distribution equipment. .
A less bloated demand
Switching to green hydrogen also has a price. Compared to production by steam reforming, electrolysis costs approximately three to six times more. However, electricity represents more than half of the costs. Problem: “The current lack of visibility does not push future hydrogen consumers to commit,” regrets Philippe Boucly, according to whom a competitive price for the industry will have to be around 40 euros per megawatt hour – a threshold lower than that of EDF production costs. The representative of the sector hopes that the bill can be lowered thanks to carbon compensation mechanisms, or to remuneration on the capacity of the electrolyzers from the electricity network.
At the same time, the carbon-free hydrogen sector must deal with a demand that is in complete upheaval, and certainly less bloated than expected. In the automobile industry, hydrogen seems to have fizzled out. Global sales of hydrogen cars collapsed by 27% between January and November 2023 compared to 2022, according to the firm SNE Research. “This is a sign that these vehicles do not meet a real need. They are electric, and more complicated. Knowing that, at the same time, batteries have progressed faster than we anticipated “, says Loïc Bonifacio, engineer and independent consultant.
So much so that even in heavy transport – in which the sector has great faith in getting the market off the ground – competition from batteries is becoming more pressing. Enough to push certain communities to reassess their needs for buses and trains. On the industry side, renunciations are emerging. In Rodez, the Bosch factory will not produce systems for refrigerated transport. “Our commitment to the hydrogen economy remains strong [NDLR : Bosch prévoit d’investir 2,5 milliards d’euros jusqu’en 2026], but the market tends to shift in Europe. Due to the lack of a reliable economic equation, we have decided to suspend the project”, explains a spokesperson. The deployment of the Aveyron site on other links in the chain, such as fuel cells, is not in order of the day, which revives the specter of its closure.
The question of imports
If interest in green hydrogen continues, the projects must take off. In the maritime sector, ships running on methanol are in their infancy, and those running on ammonia are in their infancy. In Fos-sur-Mer, GravitHy representatives are convinced that the needs in the steel industry are indeed there. Regulations help them. “We are talking with many customers. There is strong demand for carbon-free iron: it is the only alternative available to reduce CO2 emissions from steel,” insists the growth director, Alice Vieillefosse.
However, GravitHy estimates the additional cost of a ton of its green iron at 200 euros. A challenge all the more important as the executive’s change of heart on imports could expose the emerging tricolor fabric to fierce competition. Even more so if already processed products, such as ammonia, end up replacing the transport of hydrogen, which is known to be difficult. “Imports respond to questions of costs and efficiency, but they come up against issues of sovereignty. This means taking the risk of increasing our dependence and ending up with stranded assets,” warns Luc Bodineau. A hell of a headache in perspective.
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