Russia could take the Baltics in seven days, according to the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Vadym Skibitsky.
He also downplays the meaning of NATO’s Article 5, as he believes that it would take ten days for NATO to act.
– You have to get enough people there. The Russians have the advantage of being close and can gather strength in peace and quiet. NATO cannot have any number of people stationed in the Baltics, says Tony Ingesson, researcher in intelligence analysis.
In a noted interview with The Economist says the Ukrainian military intelligence service, GUR’s deputy intelligence chief about Russia’s future plans in the war, about the lack of weapons and a future threat to the Baltics.
Vadym Skibitsky highlights that the outcome of the war does not only depend on how Ukraine acts – the big factor is Europe. If Ukraine’s partners cannot increase their production of defense equipment and support the country, Russia will possibly target the Baltics.
– The Russians had captured the Baltic states in seven days. NATO’s reaction time is 10 days, says Skibitsky, criticizing the effectiveness of NATO’s Article 5 on mutual defense guarantees – which forms the core of the alliance’s collective defence.
The size of the Baltic States – a weakness
Tony Ingesson, assistant lecturer in intelligence analysis at Lund University, believes that NATO could have acted quickly, but that the Baltic countries have a weakness – they are small on the surface.
– It puts limits on their endurance. They cannot sacrifice space for time, the core of the problem is that you have to reinforce the Baltics very quickly if something happens. NATO will never have time on its side in the event of an attack, says Tony Ingesson and adds:
– The scenario Skibitsky raises is the worst outcome, he has his needs to raise it and I fully understand that, says Tony Ingesson.
At the same time, Russia would have an advantage based on its geographical location in the event of an attack on the Baltics, even if there are NATO units stationed in the area, Ingesson believes.
– You have to get enough people there. The Russians have the advantage of being close and can gather strength in peace and quiet. NATO cannot have any number of people stationed in the Baltics.
“We must understand the threat”
At a speech in Paris on Friday, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas highlighted that the Ukrainians’ fight is a common fight for Europe’s freedom and that if the aggression from Russia were to be stopped by Ukraine, no one else will have to fight.
– We must understand the threat, really understand it so that the efforts are proportionate to the danger, said Kallas.
Tony Ingesson believes that the Baltics are vulnerable, but that their situation has improved after Finland and Sweden joined NATO.
– It gives a lot of advantages as it is easier for us and Finland to strengthen, with worked out routines and to do it in a coordinated manner, says Tony Ingesson.
But saying exactly how many days it would take to respond to a possible Russian aggression and how the war will develop is difficult to answer.
– It is extremely difficult to forecast war. Like something will take this many days, there are so many unpredictable factors, says Tony Ingesson.