Wagner’s modus operandi has been a very cost-effective means of gaining influence for Russia in Africa and at the same time weakening the position of the Western powers, Toivonen states.
Yevgeny Prigozhin The mercenary army led by Wagner has been particularly active in Africa, and its operations will continue pretty much unchanged despite Prigožin’s death, ‘s Afrikan correspondent estimates Pasi Toivonen.
However, he believes that from now on the troops will be more strictly under the Kremlin’s guidance than during Prigozhin’s time.
– Wagner’s modus operandi has been a very cost-effective means of gaining influence for Russia in Africa and at the same time weakening the position of the Western powers, so it is very certain that the Russian administration will in one way or another retain this tool, Toivonen says.
“Rare-toothed grape bomb”
Before his death, Wagner’s conductor Yevgeny Prigozhin published a video of himself, apparently filmed in Africa. In the video, Prigozhin said, for example, to make Africa freer and to bring freedom and happiness to the people of Africa.
According to Toivonen, however, Wagner has been like a grape bomb with rare teeth in Africa. It has hit fragile states with authoritarian regimes or military juntas in power.
– Wagner’s offer to actors like the president of the Central African Republic or the military junta of Mali has been that we will help you stay in power, we will defeat the rebel groups with your army, effectively and without sparing any means. And this is what Wagner has also done.
– So yes, Wagner has offered freedom and happiness, but mostly to such autocratic, undemocratic rulers, Toivonen acknowledges.
“Action like a colonial power”
According to Toivonen, Wagner works in a very classic way like any colonial power. Military aid is given, and in return for the favors, we get the natural resources of Africa that everyone craves.
For example, a significant part of the gold mining operations in Sudan, which fell into a civil war, has been controlled by Wagner.
– What happens to these mining partnerships is determined by who takes control of the Wagner group. But Putin’s administration certainly has a very strong interest in reaping dividends from the natural resources of Mali, Niger, Sudan and other fragile states.
Even if Wagner disappears, the modus operandi will remain
Toivonen thinks it is most likely that Wagner’s activities will continue pretty much unchanged even after Prigožin’s death.
– Putin will probably replace Prigozhin with an oligarch who is loyal to him and maybe a little easier to control as Wagner’s leader. According to some estimates, Prigozhin was allowed to live a couple of months after his coup attempt precisely so that the Kremlin would have enough time to organize a smooth change of guard under Wagner.
However, Toivonen estimates that the structure of doing things in Africa can be dispersed in such a way that in some countries Russia can act directly in the name of its own army, in some countries possibly in the name of another mercenary company, in some countries also in the name of Wagner.
– What is clear is that even if Wagner’s name disappears into history, it and its activities in Africa will continue, one way or another.
Toivonen points out that when someone seizes power with armed force and ousts the elected president, it is quite clear that Western actors cannot be expected to support and help right away.
– Wagner and Russia don’t ask for democracy, that’s why they are a natural partner for military governments and autocrats.
Anti-Westernism on the rise in Africa
According to him, it is also about growing anti-Westernism in Africa. Countries like Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have been independent for decades. Despite this, former colonial master France has still in many respects set the pace in their politics and economy, and exploited their natural resources.
– Now the leaders and citizens of these countries have their fill. The French troops have been driven out of the country and Wagner has struck this seam.
Africa has seen demonstrations supporting the military junta that seized power, waving Russian flags and telling the French to disappear. Toivonen states that it may partly be the mood fueled by Russia and Wagner.
– But there is certainly also genuine weariness in the African countries with the influence of the former colonial powers.
You can listen to Toivonen’s evaluations of Wagner’s activities in Africa on ‘s Aamu-tv, 7 am radio news and Ykkösaamu’s Tuesday broadcasts.