Will Emmanuel Macron have to dissolve the National Assembly if the presidential majority does not come out on top in the European elections on June 9?
A few weeks before the European elections, a victory of the presidential majority is far from being the scenario favored by the poll results. Voting intentions are clearly more favorable to the National Rally list, which peaks at 32% in the latest studies. Jordan Bardella, head of the list and president of the far-right party, however recalled BFMTV this Wednesday April 17 that “the polls do not make the vote”.
A statement made more to call on the French to go to the polls than to cast doubt on his ability to win the election. Marine Le Pen’s foal takes pleasure in recalling the unprecedented gap between her list and that of the Macronist candidate, Valérie Hayer, in the polls and draws conclusions: “When we are in power, when we have 10 to 15 points gap in relation to the first opposition party, there is a problem, not of legitimacy, but of credibility for the presidential majority. According to him, victory is within reach for the National Rally on the condition that French voters mobilize on election day: “Every French person who stays at home on June 9 will give Emmanuel Macron a pretty nice gift.”
Not only being accessible, a victory for the Lepenist party would make it possible to redistribute the cards of national politics according to the National Rally, because Jordan Bardella affirms: these elections are as much European as national. And the head of the list repeated it: “If I lead the European elections, I will ask Emmanuel Macron that same evening for the dissolution of the National Assembly.”
Emmanuel Macron “will have no other solution”
Jordan Bardella, who considers the 2024 European elections as mid-term elections three years before the next presidential election, believes that at the end of the vote “the President of the Republic will have no other solution than to return to the ballot boxes.” “The European elections are the only occasion, the only national election of the five-year term, which should therefore allow the French to express themselves on the government’s policy, to make their anger heard by Emmanuel Macron and therefore, to designate the political movement which will be responsible for preparing the alternation”, he adds.
But even if it emerges victorious from the election, the National Rally will not be able to force the Head of State to dissolve the Assembly and organize new legislative elections. This measure provided for by Article 12 of the Constitution, as the young politician points out, does not mention any situation requiring the President to resort to it. And given the results of the polls, which are not very favorable to the majority, it is very unlikely that Emmanuel Macron will take the risk of reviewing the composition of the National Assembly and finding himself with an even more relative majority than today. …