(Finance) – Italian employers expect hiring increases from October to December 2022, recording a net employment forecast (NEO – Net Employment Outlook) of + 13%, net of seasonal adjustments. However, there has been a decline in the climate of confidence among employers of -7% compared to the previous quarter (July-September 2022) and -14% compared to the same period of 2021. The prospects for hoteliers and restaurateurs are the best (+ 28%), thanks to the start of the winter season, followed by construction (+ 17%), primary production (+ 15%), IT and telecommunications (+ 14%). This is the scenario that emerges fromsurvey on employment prospects for the last quarter of the year carried out by ManpowerGroup.
“Despite the current political-economic situation, in the fourth quarter the hiring intentions of Italian companies remain positive, although there is a decline in confidence both compared to the third quarter and compared with last year – he comments. Anna Gionfriddo, managing director of ManpowerGroup Italia -. Digital roles continue to drive most of the demand also in Italy, with companies engaged in the search for talents with technological skills, as well as technical profiles that are always in high demand both in the construction sector – with the push of PNRR – and in in the context of Industry 4.0 “.
Regional Comparisons – Workforce increases are expected in all four macro-regions in the next quarter. Companies in the North East (+ 22%) expect the fastest hiring rate. Hiring prospects are also good in Southern Italy and in the islands with prospects of + 15%. On the other hand, employers in Central Italy and the North West show greater caution (respectively + 11% and + 9% in hiring intentions). In all Italian regions, hiring forecasts are showing a decrease compared to last year, albeit still positive. The decline was more marked in the North, both North East and North West (-17%) than in the Center, South and Islands (-11%).
Sectoral Comparisons – The most favorable job market is expected in the restaurant and hospitality sector (+ 28%). The construction (+ 17%), primary production (+ 15%), IT and telecommunications (+ 14%) and wholesale and retail (+ 11%). Hiring prospects are more contained but still positive in the public sector (+ 9%), in manufacturing (+ 6%) and banks, insurance companies and real estate (+ 1%). The only growing sector in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2021 is catering and hospitality (+ 8%), while the most significant decline is found in the banking, insurance and real estate (-45%) and manufacturing (-27%) sectors.
Organizational Size Comparison – Companies are classified into four organizational dimensions: micro-enterprises with fewer than 10 employees, small enterprises with 10-49 employees, medium-sized enterprises with 50-249 employees, and large enterprises with 250 or more employees. The best employment prospects are expected from large companies (+ 19%), and from medium-sized ones with + 14%. Small (+ 5%) and micro (+ 8%) enterprises were positive even if to a lesser extent. All organizations expect a declining employment climate compared to the same period last year: compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, in fact, the decline is -23% for small businesses, -15% for large companies, -13% for the micro and -11% for the averages.
Global comparison – ManpowerGroup surveyed 40,700 companies in 41 countries and territories to measure hiring intentions for the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite fears of a recession, employers globally are ready to continue hiring the talent they need, reporting a net employment forecast of + 30%. The best hiring intentions for the next quarter are in the Asia-Pacific region (+ 40%) and in South and Central America (+ 39%), with strong forecasts in Brazil (+ 56%) and India (+ 54%) ). Employers in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) expect relatively stable hires (+ 21%), but the outlook for Ukraine’s neighbors drops to -17% compared to last quarter. Globally, digital roles (IT, Technology, Telecommunications, Communications and Media) continue to drive demand (42%), followed by those in the Banking, Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sectors (+ 37%). Conversely, the lowest, albeit positive, hiring intentions globally are recorded in the public sector (+ 23%).