China is known to cause more climate emissions than any other country. Emissions are also growing drastically. At the same time, however, China is investing hugely in emission-free energy.
After the corona pandemic, the growth of China’s emission-free energy production has beaten all forecasts. If this development continues, the growth of China’s climate emissions will stop in a couple of years, says a researcher specializing in China Lauri Myllyvirta.
Myllyvirta has been founding the research institute CREA (Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air) and is its lead analyst. CREA studies the causes, changes and health effects of various climate emissions.
The traces of the corona pandemic were patched up in China by increasing construction and industrial production. This increased emissions. In the last couple of years, however, the country has increased its emission-free energy production, such as wind, solar, hydro and nuclear power, more than could have been predicted. This can stop the increase in climate emissions.
– The key factor that can cause emissions to structurally decrease is that the investments in clean energy are so large that they are sufficient to cover the entire increase in electricity consumption.
If this happens, there will no longer be a need for additional construction of coal-fired power in China. The increase in China’s emissions has come almost solely from the fact that more coal-fired power plants have been built in the country for electricity production, Myllyvirta states.
China’s emissions even down?
Myllyvirta considers it possible that China’s climate emissions will even start to decrease within a couple of years.
– Yes. If clean energy investments continue for a couple of years, it can turn emissions into a structural decline, i.e. clean energy grows so fast that it displaces fossil fuels.
The condition for this is that energy consumption does not accelerate significantly from the level of previous years, Myllyvirta reminds.
It is encouraging that China’s economy is electrifying at a good pace. For example, electric cars are rapidly becoming common.
Threat factors are domestic politics
Myllyvirta sees two threat factors that can prevent China’s emissions from falling. They are both related to the country’s own political decisions.
The first concern is the country’s very influential coal industry. Many provinces in China are economically dependent on the income and jobs generated by the coal industry, and many coal-fired power plants are still being built in China.
The coal industry can demand that investments in clean energy be curbed. This already happened in 2015, when coal production started to decline, Myllyvirta says.
Another threat is that China would decide to invest again in construction and heavy, energy-intensive industry.
– This would mean that no matter how much is invested in clean energy, it would not be enough to reduce emissions.
According to Myllyvirta, it is also possible that even if China’s emissions growth slows down, they will remain at a high level.
China has been very careful to make any promises regarding its climate emissions. The country has promised that the increase in its emissions will stop by 2030. In addition, the president Xi Jinping according to the promise made, China will become emission neutral by 2060.
A new climate agreement is not in sight
A possible reduction in China’s emissions would be excellent news for the Earth’s climate, also because the major powers are not currently cooperating to prevent climate change.
When the Paris Climate Agreement was born in 2015, Xi Jinping and the President of the United States Barack Obama did diplomatic cooperation. But Donald Trump rose As president of the United States, all cooperation ended, Myllyvirta says.
Now the situation is so inflamed that if the leader of either country said that he had accepted a climate agreement that affects the country’s economy, he would be branded a traitor, Myllyvirta estimates.
China’s announcements of its own climate decisions were entirely its own and were not negotiated with other countries.
Regarding China, it should also be noted that its climate policy is strongly personified by President Xi Jinping. He has placed his own political prestige behind the rapid energy transition.
China understood the benefits of green technology early on
China is the overwhelming market leader in many areas of emission-free energy. It has increased its market shares even under the threat that the manufacture of products has not been profitable for it.
Now, however, it benefits from its leading market position not only economically but also politically.
– The Chinese management already recognized more than a decade ago that wind, solar, high-speed train connections and electricity transmission technology will be areas where market leadership will be a huge strategic advantage, says Myllyvirta.
For example, China dominates the markets for solar panels and rare earth metals, which the green transition needs.
According to Myllyvirta, the situation is not changing quickly. For example, for a long time there was a thought pattern in the EU that it is not essential where production facilities are created. The market would direct their creation to where production would be cheapest.
However, China has owned production with its very strong subsidies and by not paying attention to the interests of the workers. China’s clean energy production is indeed a considerable transfer of income from Chinese households to the export industry, Myllyvirta analysed.
Now in the EU, as well as in the USA, it has been realized that the location of production also matters.
As far as the EU is concerned, the situation is not changing quickly, Myllyvirta estimates. Instead, in the United States, the president Joe Biden The anti-inflation package implemented by the government includes thousands of billions of dollars of investment in clean energy.
Myllyvirta believes that it will have a noticeable effect on the growth of technology related to emission-free energy in the United States as well.