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Republican presidential aspirant and former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, photographed at her election vigil in Iowa during the night of Tuesday.
1 / 3Photo: Carolyn Kaster/AP/TT
With Donald Trump’s Iowa victory behind him, the US primary election tour moves on to New Hampshire – where Nikki Haley can make an advance.
– New Hampshire Republicans have always felt pretty bad about Trump, says political scientist Chris Galdieri.
Goodbye Iowa – Hello New Hampshire! Next week, the US’s first primary election will be held in the northeastern state. There, as in the rest of the country, ex-president Trump leads public opinion on the Republican side, but his advantage is considerably smaller.
– The direction Trump has taken the party in, with a loud focus on social issues such as abortion, does not go down well with Republicans here. They are more interested in low taxes and deregulation, explains Galdieri, professor of political science at Saint Anselm College in the state.
Soft tone
That said, he still believes Trump, with 43 percent support in the state, will win the Republican battle there. But if former UN ambassador Haley is going to surprise anywhere, it’s in New Hampshire.
– She is popular here. “She’s done a lot of caucuses and been out in the countryside, near the borders of Vermont and Canada, where others don’t go,” Galdieri said of Nikki Haley, who came in third in Monday’s Iowa caucuses.
– In addition, she has a softer tone than Chris Christie, who claimed that everyone who votes for Trump is stupid. Haley’s argument is that she is more electable because Trump is unpopular with large sections of the population.
Infer voters
New Jersey’s ex-governor Christie threw in the towel before Iowa. But he still has 11 percent support in New Hampshire. If he sides with Haley, who today gathers roughly 29 percent of the sympathies there, she approaches Trump.
At her Iowa vigil, Haley emphasized that she can be a savior for voters.
– I am your last chance to stop the Trump-Biden nightmare, she said according to CNN.
Haley’s campaign in New Hampshire has been praised by pundits, but there are also less flattering reasons for her being in the spotlight: voters are already bored, according to Galdieri.
– They are tired of Trump and Biden, and now we seem to have eleven months with them ahead of us. And Ron DeSantis is not on the agenda, he’s barely been here.
From Haley’s perspective, though, it’s good if DeSantis stays in the fight. This is because he attracts the same voter group as Trump and thus erodes the former president’s support.
A fight?
Should Haley win in New Hampshire, the dynamics of the election process, which aims to produce a presidential candidate who can be chosen at the Republican convention this summer, will change. The premier election in the northeast is ultimately about whether Trump already has the candidacy in his hand – or whether it could become a battle.
– If Trump gets 40 percent or less, the tone changes. If he lands at 50-60 percent, it’s hard to say anything other than that the nomination is his.
FACTS The state of opinion for New Hampshire
Republican voter support by percentage for the party’s presidential aspirants in New Hampshire, ahead of the January 23 primary there. In parentheses, the national opinion support is reported and then, without parentheses, the result in Iowa’s nomination meeting.
Donald Trump, businessman and former president: 43.5 (61.4) 51
Nikki Haley, former UN ambassador and governor: 29.3 (12) 19.1
Ron DeSantis, Florida Governor: 6.5 (10.7) 21.2
Source: Real Clear Politics compilation of current polls
Read moreFACTNikki Haley
Born in 1972 in Bamberg, South Carolina, then with the name Nimrata Randhawa.
Launched his presidential candidacy last February. Widely described as savvy, has received good marks for his campaigning and debating performances. An exception is the recent fad she made, when she did not immediately point out slavery as the cause of the American Civil War.
Was US ambassador to the UN from January 2017 to the end of 2018, appointed by then-President Donald Trump.
Was 2011–2017 the state of South Carolina’s first female and first Indian-American governor (her parents immigrated from Punjab in India). As governor, she led a cross-party initiative to remove the Southern flag, which some perceive as a symbol of racism, from the state legislature.
Accountant Haley has previously worked with recycling and worked in the family’s clothing business. She served in the South Carolina State Congress from 2005 to 2011.
Married to Michael Haley. The couple has two children.
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