GAS SHUTDOWN. Gas stocks will be filled before the start of winter, but will they be sufficient to last the whole season, including in the event of cold spells? Engie does not rule out supply risks and possible gas cuts.
Will France have enough gas to survive the winter? A few months before the winter season, the question arises and becomes urgent as the energy supply has been experiencing difficulties since the start of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis. To make matters worse, deliveries of Russian gas, on which Europe largely depends, will be stopped from September 1, 2022, announced the Russian energy company Gazprom. The French company Engie relayed the news but above all wanted to be reassuring by recalling that Russian gas has only represented 4% of French inventory supplies in recent months. The closing of the valves by Gazprom does not therefore look like a new upheaval for the quantity of gas stored, especially since the gas reserve will be filled to 100% at the end of the summer according to Olivier Véran, spokesperson of the government, and Emmanuelle Wargon, President of the Energy Regulation Commission. What to avoid the risk of cuts and a possible shortage of gas envisaged by the government?
Not so sure. If the stocks are filled at the beginning of winter, it will be necessary to continue supplying them during the season and thanks to which deliveries? Above all, the temperatures will determine France’s ability to meet its needs during the winter. For the time being “we have the volumes [de gaz, NDLR] which are necessary for us in an average climate” according to the deputy director general of Engie, Claire Waysand, present on August 29 at the start of the Medef school year. But in the event of cold waves or if the winter promises to be harsher, the needs in gas will become more important and will create “hours or days of tension” according to the Minister for Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
What are the risks of gas shortages in France?
It is difficult to assess the risks of a gas shortage which will largely depend on the weather forecasts or the cold peaks expected this winter. In the event of a season with mild temperatures, the risk of breakdowns will be reduced, but the government prefers to prepare for the worst scenario before the first forecasts from Météo-France expected at the end of September and announces possible gas cuts or occasional rationing. Companies and factories would then be the only ones affected by the cuts or at least “the first affected”. Individuals who mainly use gas for heating or cooking will still be called upon to reduce their consumption as much as possible “taking into account their means”. Elisabeth Borne and Olivier Véran have notably assured that households who are already in energy poverty will not be asked to make efforts. If occasional gas cuts were not enough to protect against the shortage, shedding operations could be organised, i.e. sudden and unexpected cuts.
What are the solutions to avoid power cuts and gas shortages?
The government’s goal remains to avoid gas cuts by anticipating and above all reducing energy consumption. The objective of a 10% reduction was set by Elisabeth Borne for companies and professionals, but also individuals. This reduction must be made possible by an energy sobriety plan that each company must establish in September. The first avenues for reflection on the drop in consumption relate to heating – companies could be invited to lower the temperature of their premises to 19°C this winter – or even to illuminated advertisements. The Council of State is also examining a decree prohibiting the lighting of company logos and premises at night.
Reducing the use of heating is also a measure to which individuals are invited. It would be a question of lowering the temperature by one or a few degrees to approach or reach 19°C. For households, energy sobriety must above all go through daily reflexes and eco-gestures. The government has announced the forthcoming distribution of a communication campaign on the right things to do to reduce gas consumption.