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Belarusian soldiers train together with Wagner soldiers in Belarus. The photo comes from the Belarus military.
1 / 2 Photo: Belarus Army/AP/TT
Poland warns that Wagner soldiers may try to infiltrate the country by posing as migrants. But the mercenaries’ movement towards the Polish border is not a real threat, says defense expert Johan Huovinen.
– Belarus is trying to create the image of a dangerous, unstable situation at the border.
Since the failed mutiny a month ago when Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin marched his men on Moscow, thousands of Wagner soldiers are in Belarus – a country with strong ties to Russia.
In recent days, over 100 mercenaries have moved towards the Belarusian city of Grodno, near the Polish border, according to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
– Now the situation has become even more dangerous, he said at a press conference the other day.
Sensitive strip of land
Grodno is just a couple of miles from the politically sensitive Suwalki Corridor on Poland’s border with Lithuania – a strip of land that connects Belarus to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Both Poland and Lithuania have warned that Wagner mercenaries are trying to cross the border from Belarus, posing as migrants.
The situation at the border between Poland and Belarus has long been tense since large flows of refugees, with migrants from Africa and the Middle East, tried to enter Poland. The country accuses Belarus of coordinating the migrant flow, calling it a “hybrid attack” in an attempt to destabilize Poland and the EU.
Lithuania also warns that Wagner soldiers will exploit migrants to provoke unrest. Lithuania’s Deputy Interior Minister Arnoldas Abramavicious said on Friday that the country is considering closing the border with Belarus due to the presence of Wagner soldiers in the region.
– We are considering it. The possibility of closing the border is there, Abramavicius said.
Create instability
Johan Huovinen, lieutenant colonel and teacher at the Defense Academy, does not believe that the mercenaries’ movement closer to the Polish border poses a real threat. He believes that it should rather be seen as a political signal and that Belarus is trying to create the image of an unstable and dangerous situation at the border.
– Belarus has previously flown up, among other things, Iraqis and sent them across the border with the aim of starting a wave of refugees. This is within the scope of that, says Huovinen.
– It is possible that some “incident” will be created at the border, such as a shooting or an arrest of a Polish soldier, to escalate tensions.
FACTS The Suwalki Corridor
The Suwalki Corridor is a strip of land in northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania, named after the Polish town of Suwalki located in the border area.
The corridor is located where the distance between the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus (which has very close relations with Russia) is the smallest. The corridor is roughly 6.5 miles long and strategically and militarily important because it is the Baltic’s only land connection with the rest of NATO.
The Suwałki Corridor is considered one of the defense alliance’s weakest points, and with Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, concerns have increased further.
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