Vladimir Putin throws all his forces into battle. Satellite images broadcast on Tuesday, the sixth day of the war in Ukraine, revealed a huge Russian armored convoy advancing towards Kiev. Hours later, Russian forces struck the Ukrainian capital’s television tower, while the eastern city of Kharkiv faced heavy shelling. For Michel Goya, former colonel of the navy troops and author of the book The Time of the Cheetahs: France’s World War (ed. Tallandier), Moscow has just changed its strategy. And is about to strike hard.
L’Express: Should we expect an intensification of the fighting in Kiev?
Michael Goya: Absolutely, with the use of more and more important means of fire. Russia’s initial plan was to make a quick first attack on Kiev – parallel to other offensives launched in the rest of the country – hoping that the Ukrainian capital would not be defended. But this attack failed. We therefore witnessed in a second phase an operational pause and a complete reinforcement of the forces. The 36th Army was already engaged in the west, and the 41st Army, which constituted the long armored column on the outskirts of Kiev, attacked in the east. The revival of the offensive aims to methodically encircle the city, then to seize it. So we really go to the siege of Kiev, and the battle will increase very much in power.
We see that the Russian strategy has changed. At first, there was restraint in the use of the strike force, whether artillery or air force. The objective was to limit material damage and civilian casualties. But the Russian army decided to change strategy and to use these means because, for them, it is the only way to neutralize the defenses of the cities. This is already the case in cities like Kharkiv or Mariupol, which are suffering heavy strikes. And it will happen in Kiev.
Should we fear that the city of Kiev will be razed?
Maybe not shaved. In addition, Kiev was presented by the Russians as the cradle of Russia, so it would be inappropriate to completely devastate it given its historical importance. But for all that, there will inevitably be a lot of damage in the city. This will inevitably be accompanied by many casualties among civilians. Especially since the Russians have little precision ammunition. So even if their objectives are military, sometimes it will hit close, and cause significant collateral damage.
Can the Ukrainian capital hope to resist despite everything?
Yes, all the same, because it’s a very large city, which covers 800 square kilometres. Moreover, it is now clear that the Ukrainians are determined to fight. Now it remains to know how many there are and how they are organized, which is still a bit unclear. Everything will depend on the density of defense that there is in the city. But in any case, the fights can last several weeks. The Russians will perhaps reach Maidan Square in a few days and take the opportunity to proclaim victory in stride. But in reality, it is likely that the fighting will still continue afterwards.
How to explain the difficulties encountered by Russia at the beginning of the conflict?
This is explained first of all by the Ukrainian resistance, in particular in the cities. But also unmistakably by problems in the Russian organization. This is the first time that the Russians have mounted such a complex and large-scale operation. They had mounted more limited operations, such as the annexation of Crimea. There were also armored offensives in the Donbass, but on a smaller scale. They gained a lot of experience in Syria, but the involvement of ground forces was quite limited.
Conversely, today they commit eight full armies and a large part of their air force at the same time. So all of this has to be coordinated and represents a very significant logistical challenge. However, we noticed, for example, that the coordination between the land and air forces was not always good. There are certainly places where it worked rather well: like in the South. The 58th Army broke through north of the Crimea and advanced very quickly. But for the rest, it was much slower than we could imagine, with a certain number of problems which appeared. This is also what explains the change in strategy that we are witnessing.
For the moment, the morale of the troops remains good on the Ukrainian side. What impact does this have in battles?
This is undoubtedly the most important element, which makes it possible to compensate for the general inferiority of the Ukrainian army. Indeed, Russian material superiority is overwhelming. The balance of power is very favorable to them in terms of all major equipment: whether combat vehicles or air assets.
But this superiority is partly canceled out in the cities. Both armored columns can progress relatively easily in open terrain. As much in big cities, like Kharkiv or Kiev, it is much more complicated. And in an urban configuration, the light and motivated infantry of the Ukrainians, whether regular forces or not, allows them to organize an effective defense. So the morale of the troops is a fundamental element to compensate for the inferiority of their means.
Many Ukrainians have been trained in the conduct of guerrilla operations. Should we expect strong resistance, even in the event of a Ukrainian military defeat?
Absolutely, and that is really the most important strategic element. In the relatively short term, it seems almost inevitable that Russian troops will seize Kiev and the towns east of the Dnieper. Therefore, it should be possible for them to bring down the government. However, if they still face generalized guerrilla warfare, it can become extremely complicated for them.
This is a situation that could become Putin’s Afghanistan. Like in 1980, when the Soviets thought they could launch a major offensive in Afghanistan without encountering too many difficulties. They did not see coming the long guerrilla warfare they finally faced, which wore them down for eight years, and contributed to the fall of the USSR. In the same way, it is possible that the Russian army will get bogged down in Ukraine and that Putin will find himself trapped.