The Gaza Strip, the most famous open-air prison in the world, is turning into an open-air disaster every day. Since October 7 and the massacres committed by Hamas in Israel, the Jewish state has vowed to destroy the Palestinian terrorist organization by all means. In the most densely populated region in the world, with 2.3 million inhabitants squeezed into a territory three times smaller than Martinique, airstrikes have already left thousands dead, but have eliminated only a few dozen of Hamas fighters. A humanitarian catastrophe, without convincing results. And capital questions about the continuation of the operations.
Go and solve the problem of terrorism “at its roots”
“After the attacks of October 7, the obvious conclusion in Israel is that no physical barrier can protect us from a massive invasion,” confides an Israeli security source. “We thought that the wall on the border Gaza would be effective, but it can only repel a team of terrorists, not a large-scale action. The problem must be solved at its root by eradicating the terrorists, no matter where they are.” So, the Jewish state engages in a war of destruction, without compromise or reflection on its consequences.
Joe Biden, however, made the trip in person to warn his Israeli allies. From Tel Aviv, the veteran of American politics remembered the errors of the United States after September 11, forged in its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The president of the world’s leading power sent a clear message: “Don’t let yourself be consumed by rage.” Despite these wise words, it may already be too late for Israeli hearts. Traumatized by the pogroms of October 7, by images of torture and murdered babies, part of Israel is demanding revenge. And the whole country is crying out to be safe. “Of course, humanitarian law is important to us,” explains an Israeli diplomat. “But we have a goal to achieve, which is to destroy those who threaten us. If we do not do this, we will all suffer even more.”
The twenty years of war “against terror”, the American debacle in Kabul and the triumphant return of the Taliban in August 2021 seem far from Tel Aviv’s current concerns. “However, this choice is similar to the war in Afghanistan,” says Hugh Lovatt, Middle East specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Israel can intervene militarily, but at an immense human cost. And what to do the day after? How to govern such a place? The Israelis have always refused this impasse in Gaza, but today they especially refuse to ask themselves these questions.”
The current debate is more about how to wage war in the Gaza Strip, never about its objectives. “A key element of this conflict, the day after is however completely absent from the discussions, confirms Bilal Saab, defense and Middle East specialist at Chatham House. Israel is not going to take possession of the Gaza Strip, which will not become no longer a democracy overnight. The arrival of a Hamas 2.0 remains entirely possible, as long as Iran provides weapons to the Palestinians who want to fight against the Israelis…”
This strategic vagueness contributes to raising tensions between the various Israeli authorities, particularly between the government and the security services. On October 28, Benjamin Netanyahu blamed his intelligence services for the October 7 fiasco, which he accused of not having “warned him of Hamas’ warlike intentions.” National outcry, including among his political allies. The next morning, the Prime Minister returned to his remarks, but the controversy shows the fragility of national unity and allows major strategic disagreements to filter through behind the scenes. “By insisting that it will eradicate Hamas, the Israeli government is doing the army a disservice,” said Bilal Saab. “When you are chief of staff, you wonder how to translate such words into an achievable military objective … For the Israeli army, the most realistic thing would be to massively degrade Hamas’s military capabilities, and ideally to disarm it. This will not be simple, with enormous risks, but it is possible.”
© / Legends Cartography
Even in the short term, Israeli decision-makers seem hesitant. Elite troops have carried out a few incursions into the Gaza Strip, after massive bombings and a cut of all communications, but the major ground offensive against Hamas, promised by the authorities, is struggling to get off the ground. Within the war cabinet, some understand the extent of the trap set by Hamas. “Its leaders spent time in Israeli prisons, many of them speaking Hebrew. They knew how Netanyahu was going to react to their offensive, the main aim of which was to shock, underlines Stephen Farrell, British journalist and author of Hamas: The Islamic Resistance Movement (2010). They wanted to lure Israel into the Gaza Strip, with their traps and tunnels. Hamas very well calculated the events that would occur in the weeks following its massive attack, and the images of horror that the whole world would receive. In his eyes, all this weakens the Israeli enemy.”
Each bombing on Gaza, each video of parents searching for their children under the rubble of buildings increases the risk of a regional conflagration, with an “Arab street” in turmoil in neighboring countries. In the north, Hezbollah threatens to enter the conflict; in Syria, Iranian militias attack American bases and approach the Israeli border; in the West Bank, Palestinians and settlers clash every day in deadly face-to-face encounters; and Iran directly warned Israel, which it accuses of having crossed “the red line” in its response against Hamas. Surrounded by enemies, the Jewish state must prepare for the worst in the next phase of its war.
At the same time, the bombings in Gaza are daily reducing the support that Israel can enjoy in international opinion. Even among its allies, calls for a ceasefire or a “humanitarian pause” are increasing in the face of the appalling human toll in the Gaza Strip. On the French side, we favor the second option, in a very pragmatic way. “To negotiate a ceasefire, Israel needs – and this is entirely legitimate – very strong guarantees, which is impossible today because Hamas does not give them and continues to fire on Israel, points out a French diplomat. The humanitarian pause aims to ensure that humanitarian aid arrives on the ground for those who need it and also allows us to continue negotiating the release of the hostages.” Dozens of them are still being held by Hamas, under bombs.
International pressure, however, is unlikely to push Israel back. “The ground invasion of the Gaza Strip is only a matter of time, thinks Bilal Saab of Chatham House. It will be preceded by an intensification of airstrikes, the aim of which is to make the offensive a little less complex. It will, nevertheless, be an immense challenge, with the most sophisticated tunnel system in the world. It will undoubtedly be the most difficult operation in the history of the Israeli army.” A challenge for the weeks and months to come, probably also for the next years.
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