The consequences of global warming will weigh on the amount of French home insurance policies. Find out how much you will have to pay within 25 years.
The impact of global warming is increasingly palpable, including in France. Average temperatures have increased by around 1.7°C in mainland France since 1900, with an acceleration of this increase since the 1980s. This increase could reach 2.7°C in 2050. The consequences are numerous and concrete, with an increase in episodes of drought and forest fires. “In 2020, disorders resulting from drought are responsible for 73% of the losses covered (excluding automobile) by the natural disaster compensation scheme, or around 1,100 million euros., recalls the website of the Ministry of Ecological Transition. Global warming also results in more intense precipitation, more frequent flooding and soil erosion causing landslides. So many consequences which have a cost for the French, but also for insurers.
The French Insurance Federation (FFA) carried out a study aimed precisely at assessing the increase in the climate bill in the years to come. Based on the most pessimistic scenario of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), it reveals that the number of property damage insurance claims could increase by 93% by 2050 The cost of natural events is expected to reach 143 billion euros over the period 2020-2050. This represents 54 billion euros for floods and marine submersion (+87%), 46 billion for storms (+46%), and 43 billion for droughts (+215%).
What impact on the insurance premium? As a logical consequence of the increase in the number of claims linked to natural disasters, the amount of insurance premiums will increase, particularly in some of the most exposed French regions. “It will take a lot of insurance premiums to cover these losses. By 2050, for example, home insurance premiums are expected to double on average.“, declared the general director of Maif, Pascal Demurger, during the “France adapts” event organized on January 24, 2024 by the Ministry of Ecological Transition at the Natural History Museum in Paris.
According to the “Reassure me” website, “home insurance premiums could see a gradual increase, potentially reaching 1,381 euros by 2050 in the PACA region or even 1,187 euros in Ile-de-France.“The amount of premiums could thus increase by more than 50% on a national scale, going from 471 euros on average to more than 1,000 euros. The increase will be even greater in certain regions, faced with increased risks of flooding such as the PACA, Brittany and Hauts-de-France regions.