It is too early to talk about the El Niño phenomenon, says Matti Huutonen.
The exceptionally hot heat has been the talk of the town this summer, and rightly so.
June was said to be the hottest month in the entire earth’s recorded history. In July, the Earth’s daily average temperature record was broken, and soon tourists in California were already waiting for the world heat record to be broken.
In Europe, fierce heat is tormenting the south. On Tuesday, July 18, the temperature in many Mediterranean countries hovered around 40 degrees, in some places even 45 degrees. On the same day, it was reported how heat waves have caused extensive wildfires in southern Europe and Switzerland.
On the weather warning map many Mediterranean countries now glow in the strongest color of the three-point rating scale, red.
But is it possible that the extreme heat will soon reach Finland?
Low pressure protects against heat
The meteorologist of Matti Huutonen can see that this will not happen, at least in the near future.
There is now a large area of low pressure over the North Sea, which arrived from Britain at the beginning of the week.
In Huutonen’s words, it causes very typical Finnish July weather for the coming days: the weather is mild, albeit cloudy and staying below the temperature readings. There will be local showers here and there.
– We are under low pressure throughout this hot week and well into the end of next week at least, Huutonen commented.
The low pressure area now divides the European weather in two. Southern Europe, on the other hand, is dominated by a large high-pressure area, which has brought a very hot air mass with it from North Africa, especially to the Mediterranean countries.
– And there the heat also continues, Huutonen states.
El Niño does not affect the weather anywhere yet
According to Matti Huutonen, it’s quite common that intense heat is combined with the El Niño phenomenon, which is intensifying this year.
The phenomenon refers to a change in the Pacific ocean current that occurs every 3–7 years and affects the weather in large areas.
However, El Niño is just starting again this year, and its effects on the weather cannot yet be seen anywhere in the world.
– Around next year, or in the winter at the earliest, its effects will begin to be seen, Huutonen states unequivocally.
It is generally difficult to be certain about the effects of the phenomenon on European weather.
– It has been studied to some extent, but no definite results have been obtained. Europe’s weather is influenced by so many factors that it is difficult to see the effects of a phenomenon that takes place so far away, Huutonen reasons.
Weather conditions are formed regardless of climate change
Meteorologist Matti Huutonen reminds us that, contrary to what is often said, the effect of climate change on weather phenomena is not entirely clear-cut.
For example, climate change is not the main culprit for the extreme heat in Southern Europe, but rather a contributor.
– Climate change does not cause individual weather phenomena, but it strengthens them. For example, high pressure or warm air flow must first exist, and climate change will then intensify their effects.
According to Huutonen, it is now impossible to predict whether Finland will experience extreme heat waves similar to those in southern Europe in the next few years.
– For example, in 2010, when Finland’s previous heat record of 37.2 degrees was broken, the weather conditions happened to be very hot for a long time. If these kinds of weather were to hit Finland one year, climate change would probably intensify them, says Huutonen.