A new Prime Minister will succeed Gabriel Attal, but who? The profile of the future head of government will depend on the majority or coalitions in place in the National Assembly and several scenarios are to be considered.
The names of the candidates for Matignon are jostling, but who will be appointed Prime Minister? The replacement of Gabriel Attal will confirm the reconfiguration of French political life and the transition from the presidentialist era, which began with Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term, to a more parliamentary sequence. But the task of the future head of government will not be easy given the composition of the National Assembly: none of the three major blocs – the left-wing union that came out on top in the legislative elections, the presidential camp and the far right – has obtained an absolute majority. However, without the support of a clear majority, there will be no government. At least not a stable government.
If the Prime Minister is not assured of the support of the majority of the deputies, a motion of censure voted by at least 289 deputies is enough to overthrow him, with his government, at any time. But the three powerful blocs of the National Assembly having between 143 and 182 elected members, the composition of the hemicycle requires that no group can govern alone, not even the New Popular Front. This unusual situation in France raises questions about the profile of the Prime Minister who, let us remember, is appointed solely on the decision of the President of the Republic, but who logically must correspond to the majority in place to avoid as much as possible a motion of censure.
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14:04 – The right “in combat mode” if a left-wing Prime Minister is appointed
While the left wants to install a government and urges Emmanuel Macron to appoint a left-wing Prime Minister, the right is rebelling and also putting pressure on the head of government while the way to a coalition between the presidential camp and Les Républicains has been opened by Edouard Philippe. “Is the Popular Front really united?” asked right-wing senator Bruno Retailleau on BFMTV, trying to discredit the union of the left. According to him, the left-wing parties “cannot manage to name a Prime Minister and they are associated with the LFI party which for [lui] is outside the republican field”.
“If tomorrow the President of the Republic were to think of appointing a left-wing Prime Minister, he would have to deal” with the right, the senator assured. “The Senate has powerful institutional means when the National Assembly does not have an absolute majority,” he added before warning: “We will put ourselves in combat mode.”
13:45 – The left wants to “form a government team, not just choose a name”
Negotiations on the appointment of a Prime Minister continue between the parties of the New Popular Front for the third day after the legislative elections. The coordinator of France Insoumise, Manuel Bompard explained the deadline set for proposing the name of a head of government but assured on BFMTV “that it is about forming a government team, not just choosing a name”. The left-wing union therefore wants to agree at least “on balances” for ministerial positions, particularly depending on who will be the Prime Minister. “The objective is to form a government to implement the NFP program” added the rebellious MP.
Manuel Bompard did, however, reaffirm his desire to see a member of LFI designated as the official candidate of the left for Matignon: “If the Prime Minister is rebellious, as I think must be the case, then there must be other positions of responsibility for the other parties.
Possible scenarios
The New Popular Front has become the most powerful group in the National Assembly in the early legislative elections of 2024, even though it does not have a majority. Buoyed by the results of the vote, the left-wing union is demanding to govern and is urging Emmanuel Macron to appoint a Prime Minister from the left. However, the various member parties of the union have not yet reached an agreement on a profile of a potential Prime Minister from their ranks:
- A rebellious Prime Minister : La France Insoumise (LFI) wants the designation of a Prime Minister to be the responsibility of the party with the most representation within the union, which is itself for the moment. But the socialists, the ecologists and the communists seem rather opposed to choosing a rebel, considering that the party and its members are not able to “appease” and do not meet the consensus criteria imposed by all the forces of the New Popular Front. The name of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has put himself forward on several occasions, has in fact been ruled out, even if he is still supported by the rebels. Other names of elected LFI members have been put forward: Clemence Guette, Manuel Bompard, Mathilde Panotbut also Clementine Autain And François Ruffin, who have distanced themselves from the party.
- A socialist Prime Minister : the Socialist Party also hopes that the profile designated for Matignon comes from its ranks and while the socialist group could ultimately be more numerous than that of the rebellious, the argument of LFI could turn against it. The first secretary of the party, Olivier Faurecalls for a consensual choice even if it falls on one of his own or for a vote. The socialist boss himself said he was “ready to take on the role”, but other names are also mentioned: Boris Vallaud, Carole Delga or even François Hollande but the latter was pushed aside by the left for Matignon.
- A Green Prime Minister : the Ecologists adopt a position similar to that of the socialists and want a consensus personality to be designated. But within the party also several names of contenders emerge and the boss Marine Tondelier who stood out at the end of the legislative campaign is acclaimed. Among the other names of environmentalists cited are those of Cyrielle Chatelain, Cecile Duflot or of Yannick Jadot.
But a left-wing Prime Minister, whatever party he comes from, will not be able to remain at the head of the government if he does not obtain the support of a majority extending beyond the New Popular Front. If some personalities call for opening up to the left wing of Macronie and up to the maximum center left, others oppose a coalition like LFI or the head of the PS who call for majorities by projects.
The left being the majority group in the National Assembly, it could shelter the future Prime Minister, but if a coalition were to emerge and become the largest group in terms of the number of elected representatives, it would become a breeding ground for potential heads of government. And a coalition would have the advantage of strengthening the Prime Minister by making his ouster by a motion of censure more difficult, but still possible as long as 289 deputies are not united in the alliance. Several coalition scenarios are on the table:
- A coalition between Renaissance and Les Républicains : the presidential camp at the head of the Ensemble coalition has 168 deputies while the right has 60, the two united groups would therefore accumulate nearly 230 deputies and become a majority. The two political parties have already agreed on several projects since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron in 2022 and have made it possible to pass laws despite the relative majority of the presidential camp. A coalition therefore seems possible, but the right is reluctant to once again play the role of crutch for Macronist elected officials. If such a coalition were to see the light of day, the Prime Minister could come from the Macronist camp, more particularly from the right wing, but also from a center-right party like Horizon or from the moderate right, why not an elected official like Aurelien Pradié ?
- A coalition between the New Popular Front and Renaissance : the presidential camp or its left wing could also move closer to the left on condition that LFI, part of the New Popular Front, is excluded from the coalition. A condition currently refused by part of the left. The left, for its part, is reluctant to join forces with the presidential camp.
- A coalition ranging from the social-democratic left to the republican right : this is a scenario that the presidential camp called for at the end of the legislative elections, but which seems difficult to envisage given the programmatic differences between the left and the right despite points of agreement.
Without a majority and without a government agreement, another solution is to build a technical government led by a Prime Minister with little political influence and who can achieve consensus from the left to the right. The ministers would then be senior civil servants, economists, diplomats and specialists in each field rather than politicians. They would be responsible for running the country and its economy without introducing any major new measures or reforms while waiting for new legislative elections.
In this case, the appointment of a rather centrist or moderate Prime Minister on the left or right and especially experienced in the role of “old sage” holds the rope. Names like Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Dominique de Villepin Or Charles de Courson are good examples. There is also the possibility of an apolitical personality.
When will the Prime Minister be appointed?
The future Prime Minister may not be named for several days. The left that wants to govern has not yet submitted a proposal to Emmanuel Macron and no coalition seems about to form, much less agree on a candidate for Matignon. However, the left-wing union promised on July 8 to give a name “within the week”. Once the proposals have been made, it will be up to Emmanuel Macron to name the Prime Minister, but the latter could take time to think about it and could postpone the nomination due to the upcoming opening of the Olympic Games. The President of the Republic could seek an agreement from all parties to let the current team manage current affairs during the Olympic period.