The dangers of “Disease X” worry world leaders at the 2024 Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. This fictitious virus could cause “20 times more victims than Covid-19” according to the WHO.
After Covid-19, the Is disease X the feared future pandemic in 2024? ? The World Economic Forum Davos in Switzerland took up the issue on January 17, 2024, during a round table centered around this hypothetical pathology. The greatest leaders in the worldincluding the head of the WHO, are present there to debate and talk about “efforts that would be necessary to prepare health systems for the multiple challenges that await them“. The objective is therefore to prevent future pandemics in the world and to define the measures that should be put in place if a potential dangerous virus spreads again in the world. Last year, during a speech on May 22, 2023, the Director General of the WHO warned that “the end of Covid-19 as a global health emergency is not the end of Covid-19 as a global health threat” and “there threat of another emerging pathogen with even more deadly potential remains“. This pandemic that could “cause twenty times more victims than that of Covid-19“, according to the WHO and could be a zoonotic disease, that is to say transmitted by animals or insects, and emerge in tropical regions where there is high biodiversity. On social networks, many Internet users feared the arrival of the “disease which appears on the list of pathologies that could cause a potential “international danger” according to the WHO. It’s what ? Should we be worried? Definitions and clarification.
What is disease X?
Disease X (also called Clade X) is a concept invented by the World Health Organization (WHO) which corresponds to a theoretical disease, a kind of hypothetical health threat. In other words, disease X does not exist in real life. It is used by scientists and researchers to “modeling” to anticipate a potential health crisisimplement targeted research (monitoring, development of effective treatments or vaccines, screening tests for better diagnostics, etc.) and quickly deploy appropriate measures if it arises at a given time. “Disease X is not meant to terrify, but to ensure that the healthy international community is ready to tackle all forms of threats, predictable and unpredictable“explains the WHO in a statement.
The letter “X” stands for “everything we don’t know”
The letter “X” represents “everything we don’t know“, indicates Richard Hatchett, Executive Director of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) which published a column on the UN website (December 2021), portraying diseaseThis is’a new disease about which we will know little when it appears : it may or may not be fatal, highly contagious and pose a threat to our way of life. We also do not know when and how it will cross the viral barrier and infect populations. On the other hand, we know that the next disease X will appear and that we must be ready“, he explains.
A list of 9 dangerous diseases feared by the WHO
“Not all new diseases have pandemic potential, but the next one that does could be as serious as Covid-19, or even more serious”
Since a WHO meeting in Geneva which took place in February 2018, the Disease X appears in the list of pathologies that could cause a potential “international danger”. Also on this list 8 other diseases that pose the greatest risk to public health (list updated at the end of 2022):
- The Ebola virus
- Marburg virus
- Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF)
- Lassa fever
- Henipaviral diseases (Nipah virus)
- Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)
- Covid-19
- Rift Valley Fever (RVF)
This list is not exhaustive and does not indicate the most probable causes of the next epidemic, underlines the WHO which reviews and updates this list as you go as needs arise and methodologies change. Based on the priority diseases, WHO then works to develop research and development (R&D) roadmaps for each of them. “This list of priority pathogens has become a point of reference for the research community about where we need to focus our energies to manage the next threat.”explains Dr Soumya Swaminathan, WHO Chief Scientist.
What symptoms could it cause?
Disease X is therefore an unknown, hypothetical, but contagious and fatal pathology. For the WHO, this pathogen a zoonosis, that is to say transmitted by animals or insects. We could then imagine that this hypothetical virus could cause symptoms typical of zoonotic diseases such as fever, fatigueswollen lymph nodes, headaches, loss of appetite, abdominal pain… For the moment, the institution estimates that 631,000 to 827,000 viruses unknowns have the capacity to infect humans and that pathogen X could be one of them.
Can disease X cause a new pandemic in 2024?
No scientist can be certain or predict the year of the next pandemic. But the appearance of a new pandemic in the coming years cannot be ruled out. “Pathogens (like viruses) continually emerge and re-emerge […] Not all new diseases have pandemic potential, but the next one to have one could be as serious as Covid-19, or even more serious“, specifies Richard Hatchett.
- Preparing for the next pandemic: developing vaccines against “disease X” – UN website
- Prioritizing diseases for research and development in emergency contexts – WHO