The Finnish expert does not believe that the West’s talks with Russia have further eased the tense situation in Ukraine. Satellite images show how Russia has been relocating combat equipment and troops to the Ukrainian border for some time.
A solution to the strained relations between Russia and the West has been sought for several weeks.
At the same time as attempts have been made at the negotiating tables to resolve the situation under the leadership of the heads of state, Russia has moved its troops to the Ukrainian border.
Here are five questions and answers about the tense security situation in Europe, the effects of which can be seen all the way to Finland.
Can Russia’s invasion of Ukraine still be prevented?
Russia said Russia would launch an attack on Ukraine on Wednesday.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin discussed on Tuesday in the Kremlin. Both presidents believe that diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in Ukraine can be continued.
Researcher at the National Defense University, docent Antti Paronen however, does not believe that international tensions have eased since the Putin-Scholz debate. If previous talks with France and the United States did not resolve the situation, it is unlikely that Germany will be able to resolve it.
Russia announced on Tuesday that it would withdraw its troops from the feelings of the Ukrainian border, although there were no signs of that until Tuesday. The baron would wait for real easing before he could say that the tense situation had eased.
Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Green) also estimated on Monday that a diplomatic solution could still be reached in the crisis in Ukraine. According to him, it seems that Russia is interested in the offers brought to the negotiating table by the United States.
What is known about the movements of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border?
Satellite images show Russia has deployed more troops and equipment near the Ukrainian border over the weekend.
U.S. satellite company Maxar Technologies has been tracking the movements of Russian troops in recent weeks. Pictures taken on Sunday and Monday show significant new activity in Belarus, the Crimean peninsula and western Russia.
Large numbers of soldiers, combat helicopters, ground fighters and fighter bombers have been brought into the areas. The pictures also show how convoys with several units of the Army and other combat units are leaving the military bases.
Reuters, a news agency that provided satellite imagery, was unable to confirm the authenticity of Maxar’s images.
Satellite imagery engineer and dissertation researcher at the National Defense University Veli-Pekka Kivimäki considers images published by commercial operators to be generally reliable, as images from different commercial operators are often compared.
Kivimäki helped investigative journalism site Bellingcat find out what kind of missile a Malaysian passenger plane was shot down in eastern Ukraine.
What do the satellite images say?
According to Veli-Pekka Kivimäki, a dissertation researcher at the National Defense University, the movement of Russian troops to Belarus began around mid-January. He tracks images published by commercial satellite companies as well as observations on Russian media about the movements of Russian troops.
– Russian assault planes and fighter bombers have been positioned in places where they have not been before, closer to Ukraine, Kivimäki says.
In the last two weeks, the movement of Russian troops has moved towards the Belgorod region near the northern and northeastern borders of Ukraine.
Military equipment has been transferred to the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula more evenly over a longer period of time, says Kivimäki. Russia has an army base in the city of Sevastopol. Equipment and troops will be transferred to Crimea via a bridge over the Kerch Strait from mainland Russia.
Russia has brought an estimated 130,000 troops to the Ukrainian border.
On Thursday last week, Belarus launched a major military exercise with Russia. NATO has estimated that 30,000 Russian soldiers will take part in the military exercise. According to Belarus, there are 70,000 of its citizens in training.
What is Russia aiming for?
Russia sees NATO’s expansion to the east as a threat and wants to prevent it. If Ukraine joined NATO, the military alliance would become increasingly attached to Russia.
Eastern Ukraine has been at war since 2014. In the same year, Russia took over the Crimean peninsula that belonged to Ukraine. The initial impetus for the conflict was Ukraine’s rapprochement with the EU, which Russia did not accept.
How does the situation in Ukraine affect Finland?
The Defense Forces do not explain in detail what is the reason for raising the level of security. Chairman of the Defense Committee Ilkka Kanerva (co.) admits, however, that underlying the tense situation in Ukraine and Russia.
Is the increase in security related to the international security policy situation in Ukraine and Russia?
– Of course, of course. We would be in a bit of a special situation if we said that what’s there [Ukrainassa] happening, or in Europe at all, has no bearing on our way of doing things, Kanerva says.
Director of Communications for the Defense Forces, Colonel Thursday Astrénin According to him, the situation in Finland’s neighboring areas is stable and there is no military threat to Finland. There is no known higher-than-usual threat of violence against garrisons or Defense Forces personnel.
The story was edited on February 16, 2022 at 9:55 am: A sentence was deleted that incorrectly stated that the Defense Forces had adjusted their readiness in case the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine would cause a flow of refugees to Finland. Minister of Defense Antti Kaikkonen (center) clarifies that the statement made at the parliamentary question time about the increase in readiness was not related to the possible refugee situation but to the general assessment of the security environment, although both were discussed in the same speech.