On Sunday, November 17, Washington authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the United States. A major strategic change, a few weeks before Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House. What military advantages are expected for kyiv?
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So far, Ukraine fought with one hand behind his back. She suffered from air raids, as those of last weekend, without being able to in turn strike the opponent at home, or only by doing so with their own drones with limited effects.
However, in this trench warfare, with a transparent and frozen front, fires in the depths are imperative. This is the key to the battle, since concentrations of men and equipment, logistical nodes and airfields are scattered far from the fighting. We must therefore be able to destroy them at great depth over distances of several hundred kilometers.
Rocket artillery, ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) are tactical surface-to-surface semi-ballistic missiles fired by M270 MLRS tracked multiple rocket launchers, as well as by M142 HIMARS rocket launcher trucks. Provided by the Americansthey make it possible to destroy targets 300 kilometers away. These systems will therefore pose a serious threat to Russian rear territory, which until now was almost a sanctuary.
Will this American decision be a turning point in the war?
However, the impact of this American green light must be moderated, tempered by senior French officers, who believe that “ it will not be a “game changer”but rather the possibility of slowing down the Russians, certainly not stopping them “. Although it is late, the authorization to strike Russian territory with American weapons is nevertheless welcome for the Ukrainian camp, because it will rebalance a balance largely favorable to Moscow.
It is possible that the presence of North Korean troops in the Kursk region (one division, or 10,000 men) alongside Russian forces motivated the choice of the outgoing American president Joe Biden. Still, the return of Donald Trump to the White House could change the situation again. The newly elected American president has regularly stated in recent months that he “ would end the war in a day “.
Scalp missiles already supplied by France and the United Kingdom
President Biden’s decision is a real turnaround, because until then, the White House refused to give such a green light for fear of an escalation with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly declared that in the event of a threat to his territory, Russian nuclear doctrine authorizes him to use tactical nuclear weapons (of a few kilotons). The head of the Kremlin has also regularly warned that such a decision would mean that “ NATO countries are at war against Russia “.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose country is the second largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, has for his part always refused to supply the long-range Taurus missiles. On the other hand, Poland, one of kyiv’s strongest supporters, welcomed the American decision which could push other allies to do the same, like the United Kingdom.
London and Paris supplied Ukraine with Scalp cruise missiles (Storm Shadow, in its British version). The first copies were delivered to Ukraine in the second half of 2023. In August, the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky had also dedicated a Scalp missile by writing on the sides of the weapon “ Slava Ukraïni “, either ” Glory to Ukraine ”, in Ukrainian.
The first shot targeted a Russian command center located in the Luhansk oblast, which was until then out of range of the Ukrainian arsenal. But the Scalp missiles, with their range of 300 kilometers, were above all the architects of victory in the Black Sea. On September 12, a large-scale missile attack destroyed two ships that were dry docked in the port of Sevastopol, a large landing ship and a kilo-class submarine, the Rostov on Don.
Also read“Operation Chrysalis”: how France organizes the delivery of Scalp missiles to Ukraine
A more nuanced position from Paris
Could Paris also follow in Washington’s footsteps? Monday, November 18, the head of French diplomacy Jean-Noël Barrot stuck to the words of President Emmanuel Macron, made six months ago. “ You heard President Macron in Meseberg on May 25, where we openly said that this was an option that we were considering, whether to authorize strikes on targets from which the Russians are attacking Ukrainian territory », indicated Jean-Noël Barrot, before adding: “ So, nothing new under the sun. »
In Brussels, hesitations over the use of European weapons by Ukraine against Russian territory
After Washington authorized the use of American long-range missiles by kyiv, Europeans are not all on the same wavelength. This despite pressing calls for unity issued again by the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell. “ Every time we made a decision to help Ukraine, it took us too long », he regrets. For the head of European diplomacy, the heavy Russian strikes on Sunday November 17 against Ukrainian energy infrastructure are Vladimir Putin’s response to ” any attempt at discussion or negotiation “. It is first of all an unequivocal condemnation of the telephone call from the German Chancellor to the Russian President a week ago. Josep Borrell adds that if Europe wants to talk “ the language of power “, it must be united, reports our correspondent in Brussels, Pierre Benazet.
But the Twenty-Seven are not taking the path of unity this Monday, November 18. In addition to Germany, which still refuses its green light for the use against Russian territory of its Taurus missiles, Italy maintains its position of refusal: the weapons supplied by Italy ” can only be used within the territory of Ukraine », insists Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani. His French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot is content to repeat Paris’ position: authorizing weapons supplied by France to strike Russian soil is an option that the government “ takes into consideration “. Which is a way of saying that if there is authorization, the information will not be made public.