Timo R. Stewart, a senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute, assesses for what the missile and drone attack carried out by Iran the night before Sunday might lead to next.
The night before Sunday, Iran carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on Israel. The Iranian attack was in retaliation for Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus two weeks ago. At the time, several high-ranking officers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard were killed in the Israeli attack.
Senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Institute Timo R. Stewart assesses to what the Iranian attack on Sunday might lead to next.
How big is the danger of a wider war breaking out in the Middle East now?
– The danger of a bigger war definitely exists. It has been there all along. Iran has already attacked Israel indirectly through the various terrorist groups it has armed, and Israel has attacked these groups. The enmity between Israel and Iran was one influencing factor for the entire Gaza war.
– However, this was the first direct blow from Iran to Israel, and thus the risks of a tightening of grips and an open regional war increase even more.
Did you think there was anything surprising in last night’s attack?
– I was surprised myself that the blow was direct and so wide. Another surprise was how effectively Israel, the United States, Britain, Jordan, and apparently also other countries in the region, were able to repel Iran’s missiles. The attack was almost completely repelled. It’s a tough feat.
What do you think will happen next?
– The next thing we know is the consultation between the United States and Israel. In my opinion, the White House has signaled to Israel that it should not strike back directly. According to the US, the minor damage caused by the attack should be seen as a defense victory and the attacks should be left alone. The escalation of the situation is certainly not in anyone’s interest.
– The next step is probably to condemn Iran. The case is being brought before the UN and it will certainly be discussed at the upcoming G7 meeting. If Israel keeps its temper, the country could use the situation as a way to break diplomatic isolation and seek a political alliance against Iran. However, there may also be parties in Israel who see the situation as a good opportunity to strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
– From Iran’s point of view, a lot depends on how the country presents the matter to different audiences. Iran had certainly calculated when planning the attack that it would not cause so much destruction in Israel that it would lead to open war. There is a long distance between the countries and Iran gave Israel a lot of time to prepare for the attack.
– The fact that the attack ultimately caused so little destruction does not look good for Iran either. Now Iran has to try to sell the incident as a mere warning to Israel, but it remains to be seen how well the explanation sinks in to the citizens and various organizations supported by Iran.
Could the Iranian strike have direct effects on the war in Gaza?
– It may be that the international attention turns away from the Gaza Strip for a while. In addition, it is possible that, for example, the pressure placed by the United States on Israel will be eased for a while. When you look at the bigger picture, you can definitely say that an attack like the one we saw was a strategic mistake on Iran’s part.
What could eventually end the cycle between Israel and Iran?
– This is a really difficult question. If Israel decides to strike back despite U.S. calls, it will put the White House in a very difficult situation. The desire to defend Israel from an enemy like Iran is certainly great, but there is also a sense of frustration in the United States with the choices made by the Israeli government.
– It may be that, despite the United States, this will lead to a regional war against the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization in Lebanon. Again, it is a much bigger and more challenging issue for Israel than the Gaza war. That’s why I don’t think that Israel is lightly rushing into a counterattack. I believe that the more likely it is that the escalation can be stopped.