At the end of January 2023, Joe Biden dashed Kiev’s hopes by delivering a categorical “no” to the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to kyiv, before finally changing his mind. Eight months later, as weapons stocks dwindle as the conflict bogs down, and The White House once again declined President Zelensky’s requests to deliver long-range tactical missilescan Ukraine hope for a new about-face from its American ally?
In any case, this is what seems to be taking shape. According to NBC News, who was able to speak with four officials “close to the matter”, the White House would be on the verge of delivering to Kiev “a small number” of long-range ATACMS missiles, or “Army Tactical Missile System”, these weapons used during the Gulf War and during the invasion of Iraq, capable of hitting a target at a distance of 300 kilometers. Joe Biden reportedly made the promise to Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting held behind closed doors during the Ukrainian president’s four-day visit to Washington in September.
“The decision was made before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the United States this week, but the Biden administration chose not to announce it publicly. One person says this was to avoid spilling the beans to the Russians”, specify the journalists Felicia Schwartz and Christopher Miller in the Financial Times.
Towards crossing a red line?
And for good reason, if it were to be confirmed, this delivery would symbolize the crossing of a new level in the conflict between Putin’s Russia and Ukraine. Since the start of the war, the White House has been careful not to appear as a direct party to the conflict in the eyes of the Kremlin, in order to avoid an escalation leading to a globalization of the war. Help, yes. But without fighting directly. The watchword remains the same, in any case, in appearance. Because delivering missiles capable of hitting a target up to 300 kilometers away means giving Ukraine a strike capability that would go well beyond the border it shares with Russia.
A “new red line” would then be crossed. For the first time since February 24, 2022, Western missiles could land on Russian territory. “Until now, the long-range missiles delivered to Ukraine by the West were used to hit Russian military bases illegally installed on Ukrainian territory, and not military installations in Russia,” the general explains to L’Express. Jérôme Pellistrandi, director of the National Defense Reviewemphasizing the “very modern” character of these “ultra-efficient” weapons.
The risk of resorting to counter-propaganda
Last spring, the White House said that while the United States remained “committed to providing Ukraine with the equipment and training it needs to regain sovereignty over its territory,” However, they did not support “attacks inside Russia”. A position reiterated in July. And although Ukraine tries to reassure its allies, by insisting that it will only use weapons delivered by the West within its borders, the White House remains cautious, aware that such munitions would allow the Ukrainians to target Russian territory “in depth”.
However, a use by the Ukrainian army of Western missiles in Russia would risk fueling Russian counter-propaganda, which consists of accusing the United States of waging war against Russia against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. “During the war in Vietnam (1955-1975, editor’s note), the Viet-minh – nationalist and communist party founded by Ho Chi Minh – exhibited the remains of American weapons for propaganda purposes, to show that the Americans were responsible for the atrocities committed in the country”, remembers Jérôme Pellistrandi, who fears that the Kremlin will resort to similar procedures.
“Simple to use” weapons
Especially since unlike the British Storm Shadow and French Scalp missiles which must be fired from the air, the ATACMS are projected directly onto the ground by artillery systems, thus making them more “mobile” and “simple to use “. No need for military aircraft, which Ukraine is far from massively equipped with. “The use of ATACMS, however, requires a little more in-depth training, but above all coupled with very good adequacy of intelligence”, nuance however Jerome Pellistrandi. Because the cost of this type of missile which disperses up to 300 mini-bombs is quite high. Count around $1 million per unit.
“There is no question of wasting such weapons on objectives that have no value,” insists the general. “Thus, in the event that ATACMS were actually delivered to Ukraine, these would be used to destroy command posts, air bases, strategic telecommunications equipment for example, or any other high value-added target stationed far from the front line”, specifies the expert.
Several types of ATACMS missiles
Still, the chances of witnessing a turning point in the conflict depend largely on the type of ATACMS that the United States will deliver to Ukraine. There are in fact several variants of the missile, each with a different level of precision and impact. The oldest ATACMS, for example, have a maximum range of only 165 kilometers. But while the White House has so far still not confirmed the delivery, and although no details on the type of missiles have been provided by the interlocutors of the NBC Newsseveral experts are counting on the delivery of ATACMS cluster munitions whose range would be equal to 300 kilometers, as requested by Ukraine.
But after several successes of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield, and more particularly in Crimea, General Pellistrandi is confident in Kiev’s ability to successfully carry out its counter-offensive. “The Ukrainians have shown their talent more than once,” argues the one who points to “fairly spectacular” successes in recent weeks. Like last September 22, with the destruction of the submarine Rostov-on-Don and the landing ship Minsk, while they were in dry dock in the port of Sevastopol, in Crimea. kyiv notably announced this Monday, September 25, the death of Admiral Viktor Sokolov who was alongside the 34 officers killed in the bombing. Yet another hard blow for Russia, which, if it were to confirm his death, would suffer the loss of its highest ranking general officer killed since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.