Evicted from Russia, the mercenary company Wagner is now continuing what it does best from Belarus: mercenary operations in Africa and the Middle East.
This is the assessment of a Tampere University doctoral researcher familiar with mercenary armies Mikko Räkköläinen.
Wagner rose to command Yevgeny Prigozhin leading a rebellion against the Russian military leadership on Midsummer. The uprising failed, and Prigozhin and some of his troops were evicted to Belarus.
What exactly are Wagner’s troops doing there? Why has Prigozhin been allowed to stay alive? In this story, Räkköläinen answers these and other questions about Wagner’s future.
Wagner’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely
The exact number of Wagner soldiers in Belarus is not known. Räkköläinen says that the Belarusian opposition has communicated about 3,500 Wagner soldiers in the country.
– It can be considered a relatively believable reading. Of course, the Belarusian opposition may have an interest in slightly increasing the readings, says Räkköläinen.
According to Wagner’s own propaganda, it is currently training Belarusian soldiers and maintaining its own forces.
Räkköläinen says that the material shared by Wagner from Belarus has so far seemed mostly to train conscripts, where, among other things, the soldiers’ firing positions are corrected.
According to Räkköläinen, an attack by Wagner’s forces from Belarus to Ukraine is currently very unlikely. There are no more than a few thousand Wagner soldiers in the country, and the troops handed over their heavy equipment to the Russian army after the rebellion.
At the moment, Wagner does not have the resources in Belarus for anything other than the usual troop maintenance activities, Räkköläinen estimates.
Wagner soldiers are bad infiltrators
Wagner does not currently pose an immediate threat to Ukraine, but Belarus’ border neighbors Latvia, Lithuania and Poland have communicated their concerns about Wagner in recent days.
Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki said last week that more than a hundred Wagner soldiers have moved near the Suwałk Corridor, which separates Russia’s Kaliningrad region from Belarus.
Morawiecki said Wagner members may try to infiltrate EU territory by posing as migrants or cause confusion by posing as new border guards.
Räkköläinen, however, is toppling over. According to him, such a hybrid operation would not be characteristic of Wagner at all.
– Wagner is currently a high-profile organization under strict surveillance. They are almost the worst possible people for infiltration, says Räkköläinen.
Räkköläinen reminds that Belarus has enough of its own border troops to create a hybrid operation at the border if necessary.
– I see no reason why Wagner’s fighters, who are considered unreliable and dangerous even by the government of Belarus, would be used for such an operation.
According to Räkköläinen, Russia’s help would also be needed for a wider provocation in the border area, but the Kremlin has no clear interest in this now. Instead, NATO countries bordering Belarus may have their own interest in highlighting the threat.
– Poland and even more so the Baltic countries have always reacted strongly to the Russian threat, because with that card they get more resources from NATO, says Räkköläinen.
Wagner shows its benefits in Africa
During the last year, Wagner became known for his fights in Ukraine. Originally, however, the organization was created as an organization that participates on behalf of Russia in conflicts around the world.
– That’s what Wagner did before the attack on Ukraine began. Going back to it is the most obvious option. That’s what Russia still needs and that’s what Wagner can still do, says Räkköläinen.
Prigozhin’s own communication points in the same direction. In a video message published last week, Prigozhin declared to his troops in Belarus that they have a “new road” ahead of them in Africa.
According to Räkköläinen, it is worth noting that Wagner’s long-standing activities in Africa have not been disturbed practically at all, despite the Midsummer Rebellion.
– The operations in Africa seem to have run well in the same way as before.
Räkköläinen points out that Wagner is completely dependent on the Russian Air Force for the rotation of African soldiers. Wagner’s soldiers travel on Russian transport planes through bases in Syria and Libya to the countries of Central Africa.
– That cooperation has continued the whole time, even though Wagner shot down the planes of the Russian Air Force during Midsummer, says Räkköläinen.
Wagner’s operations in Africa are important to the Kremlin because of Russia’s efforts to increase its global influence. According to Räkköläinen, this is the obvious reason that Prigozhin has been allowed to stay alive.
– African operations are not only Wagner’s operations. They are the operations of the entire network created by Prigožin, says Räkköläinen.
– He is still such a critical factor in that network that he can’t just be plucked out without ruining the plans created for years to expand Russia’s influence.
Räkköläinen estimates that in his current situation, Prigožin must show his usefulness to Putin even more clearly and ensure that he cannot be easily replaced under Wagner’s leadership.
– If he loses his usefulness in Africa, then nothing will protect him from the revenge that will surely be hatched in the Kremlin.
Prigozhin reacted quickly to the coup in Niger
Räkköläinen calls for monitoring the situation in Niger, where soldiers seized power from the pro-Western president last week. Prigozhin saw an opportunity to increase Wagner’s influence by quickly pledging his support to the coup d’état general Abdourahamane for Tchian.
– Niger would geographically connect Wagner’s eastern operations in Libya and Sudan with the western domains in Mali and Burkina Faso. It would become a geostrategically useful block if Wagner could expand there, Räkköläinen estimates.
However, Räkköläinen adds that so far there have been no confirmed Wagner troops in Niger. Moreover, general confusion about Wagner’s movements is part of Prigozhin’s repertoire.
Wagner is no longer seen in Russia
Wagner’s operations will continue, but Prigožin announced on Monday that the company will put new recruitments on hold for the time being.
Räkköläinen believes this to be true, as Wagner’s mass recruitments last year were due to its participation in Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine.
According to Räkköläinen, Wagner can run operations in Africa and the Middle East with its current fighters, and the company also has an experienced reserve on standby in Belarus.
After Wagner returned to his old bread, the company has no reason to be visible in Russia either.
– Wagner is seen in the Western media much more than it has ever been seen in Russia. Prigozhin is not a TV news topic in Russia. It is beneficial for Russia if the people forget Wagner, says Räkköläinen.
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