On the night of Monday, two Ukrainian drones were shot down, one over the Black Sea and one in the Kursk region.
According to Joakim Paasikivi, lieutenant colonel at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Ukraine’s drone campaign has accelerated recently – and has a double effect. Mainly, it has been seen that the campaign has had a military effect against the air bases in Russia, but the attacks should also serve as strategic communication, Paasikivi believes.
“Also, the fact that the Russian side is forced to shut down the airports around Moscow at various times means that there will be a lot of people who actually realize that there is actually a war going on,” he says.
Taken three square kilometers
The Ukrainian counter-offensive has gained new strength.
Ukraine has recently penetrated the Russian fortification lines in a couple of places, including offensive operations in the Melitopol region. According to Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maljar, the country has taken back three square kilometers of territory near Bachmut.
– It is slow, it is difficult, but it is moving forward. So we’ll see if the Ukrainian side manages to get a breakthrough or if it can get a breakthrough – but it’s not entirely improbable in any case, says Paasikivi.
The question is in what time horizons one can imagine seeing a breakthrough for Ukraine. Something that can put a damper on the wheel is weather conditions.
– When there is so much rain and bad weather, it becomes difficult to drive with heavy vehicles. So somewhere in late October, November there. Then it will probably start to get tough.