Ukraine’s war news was colored over the weekend by information about Ukrainian equipment losses. Among other things, it was reported today that Ukraine may have lost three Leopard armored personnel carriers donated by Finland. However, despite the news of the loss of equipment, Ukraine’s counter-offensive is progressing, especially in the direction of the south, he says Ilmari Käihkö.
According to Docent of Military Sciences Ilmari Käihkö, the pictures and videos of the equipment losses in Ukraine can also speak for the fact that there have been no similar problems in other attacks.
– This has been a situation of one direction of attack. Everyone knew that the attack was a difficult task and it was going on without air control. If it has been thought that there will be no losses, then there has not been a correct picture of the situation.
The Russians were able to control the public with their interpretations. Their message is that Ukraine will not succeed in its counterattacks.
Of course, Ukraine does not want such a message, but it has been deliberately silent in the name of operational security. That’s why the picture of the situation, even if incomplete, is distorted.
The counterattack is progressing, but everything is still in its infancy.
Ukrainian forces have advanced in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhia, the BBC and the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report, among others. At least three villages would have been recaptured. What is the significance of such success?
– Not necessarily terribly. But all the liberated population centers are tangible achievements nonetheless. Progress is now important to show.
According to Käihko, the southern direction, where the damaged Leopard tanks were also seen, is important for Ukraine. However, the resistance there is also strong. According to Käihkö, the worst is probably yet to come.
– There are Russians there who haven’t fought terribly yet and the troops didn’t suffer losses, unlike in the direction of Donbass.
Ukraine is also not yet at the main fortification lines, but is reaching or has only just reached the first defense lines. Their purpose is probably to slow down the advance and reveal to the Russian troops what the Ukrainians are trying to break through.
According to Käihkö, the Ukrainian forces have opened at least three attack directions.
– It could also be that these are all diversions, and the direction of the attack is something else. In the direction of Melitopol are Ukraine’s most important goals, such as cutting off Russian supply connections and the accessibility of Crimea. However, there are the biggest fortresses and better Russian troops.
The lack of air superiority is costly for Ukraine
How big of a problem is it that Ukraine doesn’t have air sovereignty?
– That is a big factor. The strength of the Russians is that the air force has not suffered major losses. If the Ukrainians are unable to protect their troops as they move forward, this will be a big problem for Ukraine, says Käihkö.
Käihkö emphasizes that the information available so far has been largely Russian. That is why it is difficult to get an overall picture of the counterattack.
In his opinion, patience is needed now. It can take days, weeks, even months before enough is known about the success of counterattacks.
– It is too early to assess anything bigger. The power of the Russians is greatly underestimated. You have to be patient. We do not know, for example, about the losses of the parties terribly. Also, Ukraine has not put all the troops into combat yet.
However, according to Käihkö, it is an attack that determines the direction of the war.
Ukraine is under a lot of pressure to succeed, and one could even talk about gambling. The rush is also intense. When the autumn rains arrive, the situation on the battlefield becomes significantly more difficult again. Before that, it would be important to make solutions.
Many scholars are of the opinion that counterattacks do not end the war. According to Käihkö, this has also been the message of the US military authorities. Käihkö reminds that the whole goal of warfare is to influence politically:
– Ukraine aims for the recapture of its lost territories, losses to the Russian forces and at the same time that the support for Ukraine continues. All this is aimed at getting to peace negotiations, where Ukraine is in a good position to negotiate.
The task that Ukraine has undertaken would be difficult for any army, Käihkö sums up.