Ukraine’s withdrawal from the city of Avdijivka seems to have been significantly more chaotic than Ukraine itself reported on the matter.
Russia took possession of Avdijivka in Eastern Ukraine on Saturday after four months of fierce fighting.
A Finnish officer who trained the Ukrainian armed forces tells that the Russian attack in the city progressed quickly after it reached the city’s residential area.
The officer commented on the matter on the condition of anonymity for security reasons. His personality is known to .
This is how Ukraine lost control of Avdijivka
According to the Finnish officer, half of last year, Russia captured the hill in the northeast corner of Avdijivka, from which Russia had a good line of sight to the entire city. The city is small, there used to be more than 31,000 inhabitants.
About a month ago, Russia made two breakthroughs in the southern and southeastern part of Avdijivka, after which Russia also had a good line of sight from the southern direction towards the city.
After that, Russia managed to capture the forest area on the northwest side of Lake Pisochnyy, north of Avdijivka, from where Russia advanced to the north of the settlement area of Avdijivka, on the west side of the lake.
According to the officer, Russia used armored forces in its advance, to which the Ukrainians were able to inflict great losses.
However, the Russian advance accelerated after that, when the troops reached the inhabited area of the city. The officer says that the Russians concentrated infantry superiority, which the Ukrainians had to retreat.
– The Ukrainians apparently did not have battle positions staggered in depth, so being outnumbered they kept losing their positions, the officer says.
According to the officer, the Russian troops were a motorized infantry force that was modestly trained. However, according to the officer’s information, the troops of the Russian mercenary army Wagner had taught the troops how to fight in the center of the settlement.
– The former Wagner forces were also fighting in the south of the city together with the infantry forces, attached to the National Guard, the officer says.
Hundreds of Ukrainians may have disappeared
Newspaper The New York Times (NYT) wrote yesterday that hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers disappeared or became Russian prisoners of war in connection with Ukraine’s chaotic withdrawal.
According to the two soldiers interviewed by NYT, there are approximately 850 – 1,000 missing soldiers. According to the western official sources interviewed by the newspaper, the estimates seem to be true. According to NYT’s sources, Ukraine’s withdrawal was poorly planned and started too late.
The commander who led the Ukrainian forces in Avdijivka Oleksandr Tarnavskyi claimed on Saturday that the withdrawal from the city went according to plan. According to him, only some Ukrainians were captured by Russia.
Russia is trying to continue its advance
According to the Finnish officer, the defense positions of the Ukrainians on the west side of Avdijivka are quickly piled up trenches and accommodation dugouts.
However, the officer estimates that the Russians now have difficulty advancing because the terrain is an open field, and tanks cannot be used much off the road. Also, Russian artillery and aerial fire are not as effective in arable land as in a populated area.
– In general, the Ukrainians are quite capable of using anti-tank weapons and artillery to block Russian tank attacks in open fields bordered by forests, the officer says.
– As long as the Ukrainians have enough weapons and crews, they are quite capable of repelling Russian attacks.
The officer estimates that Russia will continue the attack west of Avdijivka.
– Russia is probably trying to concentrate troops and fire. That is, a traditional breakthrough attack, which they have found to be effective.
According to the officer, Russia tries to advance on a wide front and concentrates troops where it can get through.
– Bad weather doesn’t enable mobile warfare very effectively, but when the terrain dries out, you can see a completely different kind of Russian attack than before, the officer says.
Watch in the video how Ukrainian civilians are evacuated from the town of Selydove near Avdijivka:
A Finnish officer told yesterday that Russia intends to use the seizure of Avdijivka to its advantage to launch a major attack on Eastern Ukraine.
According to the officer, Russia has established a new army in the direction of Avdijivka, the aim of which is to launch an attack in the direction of Pokrovski and Pavlohrad towards the city of Dnipro after the end of the war.
Troops from other fronts are supposed to support Avdijivka’s army’s advance on the sites, the officer said.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin said yesterday that Russia should take advantage of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdijivka and aim to advance rapidly towards western Ukraine.
However, the military experts interviewed by today are cautious about the assessment of the Finnish officer.
Read more: Military experts: Russia is now stronger than Ukraine, but this still does not guarantee that the front lines will change