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It is between opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
But how free and fair are the Turkish elections? And what happens if there is a shiver?
– The bigger the margin between the two presidential candidates, the easier it can be afterwards, says Aras Lindh, analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy.
Six Swedish parliamentarians are in Turkey to act as election observers as part of the international delegation from the Organization for Security and Cooperation, OSCE.
Johan Büser (S) leads the Swedish delegation and is one of 77 parliamentarians from 26 countries who are observing Sunday’s election via the OSCE.
The six Swedish members of parliament were informed in Ankara on Friday and will travel between different polling stations in Istanbul and Diyarbakir on Sunday.
– We work in pairs and visit about ten polling stations each. We see how it is, if there are long queues, if signatures you fill in are transparent, if there are unauthorized people in the polling stations and things like that. Then we fill in forms that we hand over to those who write the report, says Johan Büser.
Under Erdogan’s control
Whether the election will be fair and independent is difficult to say in advance, according to Aras Lindh, an analyst with a focus on Turkey at the Foreign Policy Institute.
– Regarding the justice aspect, it is also about conditions before the election. 90 percent of the country’s media is under the government’s control, and many opposition politicians are in prison, so from that aspect it is not fair, says Aras Lindh.
He continues:
– If you look at how free it is on election day itself, the election apparatus is free in such a way that all votes are counted and there is order and order on election day itself. All parties are welcome to observe in each polling station and make sure that every vote counts. At the same time, it is not certain that all people will be allowed to vote for the candidates they want, as they may be imprisoned.
The general perception has previously been that the Turkish population had a high degree of confidence that the election results presented are correct.
An example that has been mentioned a lot during the talk before the presidential election is President Erdogan’s loss of prestige in 2019 when his AKP party lost in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election.
When the AKP lost the election in March, the Supreme Electoral Commission made a strongly criticized decision to annul the election, which was retaken. Then only the AKP lost even more to the candidate of the Republican People’s Party, CHP.
– People will take the figures that will be presented seriously. I am not aware of any warnings of irregularities this time. There are usually no major irregularities in connection with elections in Turkey, says Aras Lindh.
What happens if it turns out to be a very even election?
– One should not rule out the possibility that the election results may be questioned, or that a recount or re-election is called for.
– The question that is on everyone’s lips is how smooth a transition of power will be if the opposition wins. The bigger the margin between the two presidential candidates, the easier it can be afterwards. All of Turkey is on edge about what will happen.
“Democratic Constraints”
Elisabeth Özdalga is a professor of sociology who previously worked at two different universities in Ankara, and has for many years closely followed the political development in Turkey.
– The electoral system itself has not been questioned, and there is a large turnout. Then there is the question of the debate that was able to be held before the election where Erdogan and the AKP during their time in power acquired a very large influence over both television and newspapers
– It is an election with democratic limitations, but at the same time an election process that works reasonably well. The important thing is how the tally on election night will be, if the opposition will be able to mobilize enough power to observe the vote count, says Elisabeth Özdalga.
She does not rule out that there will be a debate about the election results, or demands for unmarked or re-election.
– It can be very turbulent after the election. If it is the case that the election results are questioned in various ways, or if Erdogan sees that he will not win the election by a narrow margin. The economy is in very bad shape, you have high inflation and there are major economic issues that need to be resolved quite quickly, so it is important to get an effective government in place quickly after the election.