The text will have sparked numerous controversies in recent months, before finally being approved. Faced with the shortage of volunteer soldiers to maintain its war effort against the Russian army, the Ukrainian Parliament adopted a new law on Thursday April 11 to expand the mobilization of men. Weakened by a failed counter-offensive in the summer of 2023 and by Western aid which is running out, the Ukrainian army must renew its pool of fighters, otherwise it will quickly find itself outnumbered against the Russian army.
“Without the number of deaths being precisely known, on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides – the two parties not communicating on this subject – it is estimated that kyiv lost well over 100,000 soldiers”, analyzes for L’Express on General Dominique Trinquand, former head of the French military mission to the UN (1). “Russia, which also suffered very significant losses, nevertheless has the advantage of having a population reservoir much greater than that of Ukraine, which lacks men and women to fight.”
Ukraine is indeed facing a very significant demographic drop. The country, which had nearly 52 million Ukrainians in 1990, already had only 44 million in 2020. And the birth rate has continued to decline since the start of the war in February 2022, currently around 1.2 children, where at least two children per woman are necessary to ensure the renewal of the population.
More time on the front
The text adopted on Thursday April 11 by Ukrainian deputies thus aims to increase kyiv’s military capabilities, and in fact increases the period of mobilization of soldiers. A clause providing for the demobilization of soldiers who had served 36 months was in fact removed at the last minute – a hard blow for those mobilized on the front for more than two years. Instead, the government will soon be tasked with drafting another bill on “improving military personnel rotation mechanisms.”
The bill also strengthens sanctions for those who resist and makes it possible to mobilize detainees. Along the same lines, Volodymyr Zelensky had already approved at the beginning of April the lowering of the age at which it is possible to be mobilized, from 27 to 25 years old. “In Ukraine, the average age of soldiers is 43, which is very old; this indicates a desire to preserve the youngest,” remarks the general.
A controversial law in a battered country
The text, which must now be handed over to Volodymyr Zelensky for promulgation, has for months sparked controversy and heated debates within a society scarred by two years of Russian invasion. Especially since the current enrollment system is considered by many Ukrainians to be unfair, inefficient and often corrupt. “99% of men want to rest, take a break,” Iévguén, a 39-year-old paratrooper based in the eastern region of Donetsk, told AFP. “There are soldiers who have not returned home for a year.”
For General Dominique Trinquand, the question of military mobilization also raises “an existential debate” for the Ukrainian population: “Beyond the operational military needs of the Chief of Staff, for President Zelensky it is a question of the political choice of whether or not to send young people to the front.”
For its part, Russia continues its massive bombing campaign with the aim of destroying Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. During the night from Wednesday to Thursday, around forty missiles and as many drones fell on the Ukrainian electricity network. So much so that the president, Volodymyr Zelensky, once again implored his Western allies to provide his army with air defense systems as quickly as possible.
(1) Dominique Trinquand is the author of “What awaits us”, published in 2023 by Robert Laffont.