At the Karlskoga factory, some 200 kilometers west of Stockholm, workers at Swedish manufacturer Saab are busy assembling parts for Carl Gustaf rocket launchers. “There is a lot of work at the moment,” confides Magnus, a site employee, wearing overalls. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, the site has been running at full capacity. Faced with the explosion of orders, the division responsible for producing 84 mm ammunition moved to three shifts. “In Sweden, the war in Ukraine has caused a great awakening, points out Micael Johansson, CEO of the defense group, from his headquarters in Stockholm. Today we must be able to face a potential aggressor, and not simply hope nothing happens.”
In Karlskoga alone, where Saab concentrates its factories linked to land combat, more than 800 hires took place last year. To meet the growing demands of its Swedish and foreign customers, the manufacturer hopes to quadruple its anti-tank ammunition production capacity by 2025, to reach 400,000 units per year (i.e. four times more than in 2022). Last May, Stockholm already placed an order for more than 260 million euros.
In this historically neutral country of 10.4 million inhabitants, where Emmanuel Macron is going on January 30 and 31 for a state visit under the sign of defense, the shock wave of the Russian invasion of 24 February 2022 has placed the risk of armed conflict at the heart of concerns. “There could be a war in Sweden,” Swedish Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin bluntly insisted during a highly publicized security conference on January 7 in Sälen. “Russia’s war against Ukraine is a stage, not a final objective,” said the commander-in-chief of the Swedish armed forces, Micael Bydén, the next day, before calling on the population to “mentally prepare” for the risk. of war, a few days later on the Swedish channel TV4.
Doubling of the defense budget
The Nordic kingdom – which has not experienced conflict on its territory for more than two centuries – plans to increase its military spending to more than 2% of GDP this year, a doubling of the defense budget compared to 2020 . “At the end of the Cold War, Sweden largely dismantled its defense, recalls Tomas Ries, professor at the Higher School of National Defense in Stockholm. Today, its forces need to regain mass, too both in equipment and in men.”
Sweden currently has 14,600 active soldiers, plus 10,000 reservists. To increase numbers, the Swedish Parliament reintroduced compulsory military service in March 2017, seven years after repealing it. If, currently, 5,000 to 6,000 young conscripts are called up each year, this figure should rise to 8,000 per year in 2025, then 10,000 between 2030 and 2035. Ultimately, it could even reach 15,000, gauge one official Swedish source. Like France, Sweden is one of the rare countries to have a defense industry covering the entire spectrum of weapons, from rocket launchers to fighter planes (Gripen, manufactured by Saab) including armored vehicles and attack submarines.
The Scandinavian country’s efforts also extend beyond its borders. “The request for NATO membership is undoubtedly the most important change since the start of the war in Ukraine,” notes Jan Henningsson, deputy director of research at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. After more than a year and a half of fighting, Stockholm recorded a major victory on January 23, with the ratification by the Turkish Parliament of Sweden’s membership in NATO. All that remains is to obtain the green light from Hungary from populist leader Viktor Orban.
“The whole country must prepare”
The uproar goes beyond the mere strengthening of military tools. In recent years, the Nordic kingdom has reactivated its concept of “total defense” – inherited from the Cold War. “Everyone aged 16 to 70 living in Sweden is part of the total defense and, if necessary, must help prepare for war,” explains the Civil Protection Agency on its website. From 2018, the authorities sent to more than 4.8 million Swedish households a booklet, soon to be reissued, entitled “In case of crisis or war”, drawing up a list of recommendations to follow in the event of conflict.
“The defense of our country is not just the business of the armed forces, it is that of the whole of society,” resolutely summarizes Jörgen Berglund, MP from the party of conservative Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and member of the committee. of defense. The health services, the firefighters, the police, the industry… The whole country must prepare.” On January 19, the government announced the activation of compulsory civil service for people with skills in the fields of first aid or electricity production.
This martial discourse is not to the taste of the social democratic opposition. “The situation is serious, but it is important to clarify that war is not at our doors, criticizes the former Prime Minister (2021-2022) Magdalena Andersson [présidente du Parti social-démocrate suédois] in an interview with TV4 on January 10. A lot of people have become very worried.” The day before, the children’s rights group Bris had reported a significant increase in the number of calls to its helpline regarding war-related concerns. “It’s not a question of saying that we will soon be in conflict, retorts, a bit annoyed, Adam Reuterskiöld, conservative MP from the Moderates party. But rather to raise public awareness of a possible worsening of the international situation.” And not to forget that over the course of their history, Sweden and Russia have fought no less than 14 wars…
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