Israel continues its bombings on the Gaza Strip following the attack launched on October 7 by Hamas. Despite Western warnings, Iran and its allies are considering opening other fronts against Israel.
From our correspondent in Beirut,
Despite the daily pace and violence of clashes between Hezbollah and the Israeli army which have caused deaths and injuries on both sides since October 7, the escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border remains limited and under control. The exchanges of fire are taking place mainly in the border area and have generally spared civilian infrastructure and residential areas, with the exception of Israeli fire which killed a journalist on Friday October 13 and two elderly people the next day.
At this stage of the conflict, the belligerents are sticking to the rules of engagement tacitly established since the 2006 war which have made it possible to stabilize this front through reciprocal deterrence. However, fears of a spread of the war raging in Gaza are real. When thousands of men, armed to the teeth and with white-hot minds, face each other, a simple error of assessment can cause a chain of uncontrollable events that are difficult to stop.
It is precisely to avoid this type of error of assessment on the part of the parties in conflict that indirect channels are permanently open. That of the United Nations International Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) deployed has been the most requested in recent times but also diplomatic channels in Beirut and in Arab and Western capitals.
“ Common operating room » for Iran’s allies
Beyond the “technical” reason, the war could spread to the entire Middle East through a decision taken by one of the belligerents for political considerations.
Hamas is not an isolated Palestinian organization. It is part of the “Axis of Resistance” which stretches from Gaza to Iran and includes Hezbollah, Syria, the Yemeni Ansarullah movement, Iraqi Shiite groups close to Tehran as well as Afghan Shiite militias – the Fatimids –, several contingents of which are currently deployed in eastern and central Syria.
Over the past two years, Hezbollah has played a leading role in closing the ranks of this alliance by working for reconciliation between President Bashar al-Assad and Hamas, accused by Damascus of having supported the Syrian rebels in the early years. of the conflict.
Over the past twelve months, coordination between certain members of this axis has gone beyond the political framework to encompass the military and security sphere with the creation of a “common operations room”, where representatives of the Hezbollah staffs, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine consult, exchange information and make tactical decisions. Strategic decisions are taken by the supreme political command of the various actors with, of course, a decisive weight for the senior Iranian leaders, but also for the secretary general of Hezbollah.
All eyes are on the party leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who has remained silent since October 7. Other leaders of the pro-Iranian party have spoken out in the meantime. The head of the Executive Committee, Hachem Safieddine, insisted that Hezbollah “ will not remain neutral “. The president of the party’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammad Raad, judged that he “ Was it time that the temporary entity – the name given to Israel – disappears “. Deputy Secretary General, Sheikh Naïm Qassem said that “ the Lebanese Resistance will intervene at the right time “.
Faced with the risk of a spread of conflict, US President Joe Biden personally warned Iran against involvement in the war and advised Iranian leaders to “ be careful “. The same message in substance was relayed this Sunday, October 15, by French President Emmanuel Macron during a telephone interview with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raïssi.
American aircraft carriers to deter the axis led by Tehran
Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan, for his part, said on Sunday that the United States could not “ rule out the hypothesis that Iran decides to get directly involved in one way or another » in the current war. “ It’s a risk, and it’s a risk we’ve been aware of from the start » of the conflict, he added.
It is to dissuade Israel’s enemies from intervening directly alongside Hamas that the United States dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean. In response to Western pressure and warnings, Iran activated its diplomacy by dispatching its Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian to Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus and Doha.
In Qatar, the last stop of his tour, the head of Iranian diplomacy declared on Saturday October 14 that “ if the attacks of the Zionist regime against the defenseless population of Gaza continue, no one can guarantee control of the situation and the prospect of a widening of the conflict “. The Iranian minister, who also spoke by phone with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, said that in Beirut, Hassan Nasrallah informed him that “ all scenarios are on the table » regarding possible intervention by the party in the ongoing conflict, adding that Hezbollah has “ defined the red lines “.
Sources close to the pro-Iranian Lebanese party tell RFI that the opening of other fronts against Israel “ is not dependent on a particular event – such as the start of a ground offensive against Gaza – but on an overall assessment of the situation “.
In this regard, Hezbollah circles are confident in Hamas’ abilities to inflict ” unbearable losses » to the Israeli army in the event of ground combat.
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THE “ transfer » of the Palestinians is “ a red line »
“ If, despite the resistance of the Palestinians, the West continues to cover up the massacres and the plan to transfer the Gazan population to Egypt, the hour of the great battle will then have come, add these sources. We will not allow Israel to recover its deterrent force which was seriously shaken by the operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” without fighting. »
These sources do not exclude direct participation by the American air force in the event of the opening of the Lebanese front, in particular by bombing the supply line coming from Iran at the Boukamal border crossing in Syria, and elsewhere.
Faced with such a development, new actors could participate in the war, notably the Ansarullah movement which has drones and ballistic missiles capable of reaching the Negev, the desert region in the south of Israel, estimates an expert on Arab issues and international events in Beirut.
The developments of the next 48 hours will be decisive and this is probably why Hassan Nasrallah will speak this week for the first time since the start of the war, according to a well-informed source in Beirut.
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