In the past week, fighting has intensified at Adijivka and the Dnieper River in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have crossed the river at Kherson in the south, but trying to get closer to the Crimean peninsula will be difficult, says Jörgen Elfving, former lieutenant colonel.
– One purpose could be to try to attract Russian units from the Zaporizhzhya area or from Adijivka.
On October 18, Ukrainian forces crossed the Dnieper River just northeast of Kherson in southern Ukraine. The river has been the front’s demarcation line in the area since Ukraine retook Kherson. Geolocated images have shown Ukrainian presence in two localities just over two kilometers into Russian-occupied land.
– Russia claims to have beaten back these forces. A situation report from the Russian Ministry of Defense writes that Ukrainian forces refused to cross the river because there had been such great Ukrainian losses, says Jörgen Elfving.
The Institute for the study of war (ISW) writes in its latest update that Ukrainian forces still hold areas of Krynky on the other side of the river, about three miles east of Kherson, on Tuesday.
Hard to get further
Continuing an offensive down towards the Crimean peninsula will be difficult for the Ukrainian forces, says Elfving.
– Then you have the river at your back and then you have to ensure transport of supplies, equipment and personnel across the river, which is not simple.
But the tactical reason for advancing across the Dnieper River may be to divert.
– One purpose could be to try to attract Russian units from the Zaporizhzhya area or from Adijivka, says Jörgen Elfving, former lieutenant colonel.
Continued attacks at Adijivka
Since October 10, Russian forces have been trying to approach the town of Adijivka in eastern Ukraine with limited success and heavy losses.
– Adijivka is quite special because it is a city that was taken by Russia in 2014 and then taken back by the Ukrainian side. Since then, the Ukrainian side has fortified this city, so there is a well-developed defense system in connection with this place, which makes it difficult for the Russian side to achieve success.
Before the winter, Ukraine has made it clear that it will continue the offensive, says Elving. But right now no major gains are visible from either side.
– There is really no side that has momentum.