Ordna Bolån’s monthly survey The mortgage barometer, carried out by Nepa, shows a trend break in households’ interest rate expectations.
The percentage who believe in a lower mortgage interest rate in the next six months increases from twelve to 25 percent. At the same time, there are fewer pessimists and more optimists in terms of housing price expectations. 35 percent believe that prices will rise in the next six months.
Hemad Razavi, CEO of Ordna Bolån, believes that the growing optimism benefits home buyers at the start of 2024, in a way that we have not seen for a long time.
– Right now we have a large supply, prices that are bottoming out, and a growing optimism among households regarding both the interest rate trend and the price trend. It has been a very long time since home buyers faced such a golden situation, says Hemad Razavi.
– When the market turns, which I think it will soon, it will turn quickly, Hemad continues.
More will dare
There are many Swedes who are in need of new homes, who have been waiting for lower interest rates for a long time, says the CEO.
– The pent-up need is huge. Now with falling interest rates, there are more and more people who will dare to take the step they wanted to do for a very long time but didn’t dare before, says Hemad Razavi.
Is it a thaw for the housing market?
– I absolutely believe so. It depends somewhat on where interest rates are headed in the future.
Razavi believes that the Riksbank has taken too hard with the high interest rates and believes that they will be forced into a substantial reduction in time for Easter.
– There is a debt that we mean you have to pay. It has been too high for too long and that means we will get a 25-point reduction, we think, he says and continues:
– But there is also room for a double reduction, i.e. 0.5 percent.
Inflation in December fell to 2.3 percent, according to the CPIF measure. The policy rate is currently at 4.0 percent.