WARSAW One concern that rises above the others is the former president of Poland Aleksander Kwaśniewski In a video interview with : Ukraine needs help, and help is urgent.
– I am very worried about what will happen in the next three months. I think the war will progress to a very dramatic stage, says Kwaśniewski.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has been promised more support and weapons. Several European countries have committed to supply Ukraine with modern Leopard 2 main battle tanks.
Poland has contributed to Germany’s decision to allow the export of Leopard wagons. Now the West must ensure that aid reaches Ukraine.
– If we slow down, after three or four months it may already be too late.
Ukraine cannot lose the war
Kwaśniewski emphasizes that Russia’s advance in Ukraine must be stopped. According to him, the consequences of Ukraine’s defeat would be chilling from Europe’s point of view.
– If we lose, Russia will continue its aggression in the spirit of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union.
According to him, Moldova and Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as the Caucasus, could be the next targets if Russia is not stopped. Defending Ukraine is defending all of Europe.
– If we accept that the attacker can do anything, we ourselves will be the next victims.
We cannot let fatigue rule. The moment we do that, Putin has won.
Aleksander Kwaśniewski
A year has passed since the beginning of the Russian invasion. There is no immediate end to the war in sight.
The effects of the war radiate to Europe through expensive energy and galloping inflation. According to Kwaśniewski, it is understandable that a series of bad news and uncertainty make people numb.
– But we can’t let fatigue take over. The moment we do that, Putin has won.
The war highlights Poland’s role
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, Poland has been one of the main supporters of Ukraine. The country has taken in one and a half million refugees and sent heavy weapons, such as battle tanks, to Ukraine.
According to Kwaśniewski, the desire to help is based, among other things, on Poland’s historical experiences.
– Poles are very sensitive about Russia. This applies especially to Russia’s imperialist policy, which we have been subjected to often over the centuries.
However, the shared history of Poland and Ukraine is anything but problem-free, Kwaśniewski reminds. Historical traumas between the countries have been investigated until recent years.
He believes that the Russian attack is a milestone in the relations between Poland and Ukraine.
– The war turned over a new leaf for us. For generations to come, the war and Poland’s unprecedented support will be the focal point of our relations.
Poland takes advantage of its position
Poland is currently a politically divided society. The country’s national conservative government and its policies are both loved and hated.
However, there is a broad consensus among Poles about supporting Ukraine. Kwaśniewski, who represented the Social Democrats, gives recognition to the government’s Ukraine policy.
– I don’t support them. But I appreciate everything they do for Ukraine, he says.
According to Kwaśniewski, the Polish leadership is trying to take advantage of its enhanced position in relation to the European Union.
The dispute over the principles of the rule of law has strained relations between Poland and the EU.
The relations between Warsaw and Brussels have been strained for a long time by a dispute over compliance with the principles of the rule of law.
– The government is trying to send a message to the EU that questions related to the rule of law should be put aside if Poland is expected to act as an engine in matters related to Ukraine, he says.
According to Kwaśniewski, the EU has acted correctly in maintaining the pressure on Poland regarding the common principles of the Union.
– The principles of the rule of law are not a trivial matter, but a central part of the European Union and our lives.
Kwaśniewski hopes that Poland will get a more pro-EU government after the parliamentary elections in the fall.
The EU’s moral obligation
The EU made a historic decision in June when it granted Ukraine the status of a candidate country. Ukraine’s heroic defensive struggle accelerated the emergence of the decision.
However, it has not yet been decided to start membership negotiations. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi has hoped that the negotiations could still be started during this year.
According to Kwaśniewski, the EU has a political and moral obligation to accept Ukraine as a member of the Union.
– They have paid such a high price for it.
Several member states consider Ukraine’s desired timetable too optimistic. Finland emphasizes that Ukraine must meet the membership criteria like other candidate countries, and that there is no bypass lane for membership.
The situation in war-torn Ukraine cannot be compared to other EU candidate countries, Kwaśniewski emphasizes. According to him, Ukraine should be offered a separate EU path that would guarantee fast membership.
Will NATO’s doors also open?
Kwaśniewski also says that he is relatively optimistic about Ukraine’s conditions for becoming a NATO member. In the autumn, to the surprise of many, Ukraine submitted a formal application to join NATO.
– This may sound like a provocation. But I believe that the understanding that Ukraine can also become a member of NATO will increase, says Kwaśniewski.
The progress of the NATO application depends, first of all, on how Ukraine manages to respond to the Russian attack. According to Kwaśniewski, the minimum goal should be for Russia to withdraw to positions prior to February 24, 2022.
– If the war ends with some kind of ceasefire or a possible peace agreement, we have no arguments that we could invoke to say that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO.
Finland’s NATO decision was good news for Poland.
Aleksander Kwaśniewski
Kwaśniewski played a central role when Poland started its own NATO process at the turn of the millennium. He praises the decision of Finland and Sweden to apply for membership of the defense alliance.
– Putin could hardly imagine that his aggression would lead to Finland’s NATO membership. It must have been an unpleasant surprise for him. But for Poland, Finland’s decision was good news.