This Monday evening, July 17, there were, on the one hand, delighted smiles on their faces. Happy smileys in text messages. A slight victorious relief that does not say its name. There were many of them, from François Bayrou to Richard Ferrand, via a slew of members of the government, to have led a quiet but diligent campaign for the maintenance of Élisabeth Borne at Matignon… and to soap the board of Gérald Darmanin, first suitor to his estate. A minister praises “excellent news”, another a battle won “faithful to my convictions”, both delighted that the President of the Republic has finally sided with them, that of continuity.
On the other… deafening gnashing of teeth. It is an understatement to say that the Prime Minister has, for the space of a year, been able to show herself to be divisive to say the least for the souls who make up her team, even for those who lurk at the Élysée. By her positions sometimes, by her character often, Elisabeth Borne exasperates. Edgy. Not everyone is transported to the idea of finding their boss around the table, for a meeting or sharing a lunch: “What the hell, all of this is incomprehensible,” grumbles a member of the government, who suddenly has a desire sudden expatriation, if possible in the sun and close to the beach. We continue in the doldrums, it will fall after the next finance bill or on a motion of censure, but during this time, we, we bump.”
However, there was nothing to fall from his ministerial chair when he discovered the informal press release issued by the Élysée to the press, meaning that Emmanuel Macron confirmed his Prime Minister for the sake of “stability” and to continue “the work of fond” engaged for a year. Even if the Gérald Darmanin hypothesis had resumed in recent days in the corridors of the Palace, in the small betting game, Macronie, in its great widths, seemed for a few days to have stopped its prognosis on the former Minister of Labor. The head of government has multiplied in recent weeks the marks of confidence in her maintenance, in particular during a interview at the Parisian ten days ago which did not fail to annoy certain collaborators at the Palace, considering that such insistence could only reflect its inability to print…
“He must install the idea that she is fully at Matignon”
Its defenders have even come out of the woodwork little by little, like the deputy Marc Ferracci, a close friend of Emmanuel Macron, who argued to AFP that there were “not many convincing alternatives” for the replace. This Monday morning, the trend was even heavier with the official appointment of its new director of cabinet, the senior civil servant Jean-Denis Combrexelle, who came to compensate for the departure of Aurélien Rousseau. The numerous defections within his cabinet, the news centered around the riots and the false dish linked to the expectations of the reshuffle had largely left members of the government with the feeling that Matignon was no longer turning quite round.
Number 1 confirmed. Number 2 hired. The head of the device is now square. Straightened out. But for how long ? And under what conditions ? After having put her under pressure for three months, after having entrusted her with the impossible mission of enlarging the majority, after having considered several names to succeed her, will the Head of State now renew his relationship with Elisabeth Borne? ? Those who imagine the latter consolidated are already invited to moderation: according to Politico, Borne wanted to submit his resignation and that of his government in order to be renowned and therefore reinforced. What the president would have refused. “If Elisabeth is effectively maintained, there will be a real problem: he must install the idea that she is fully at Matignon, for a long time, and not implicitly give her a short-term fixed-term contract, otherwise she will be increasingly weakened. as time passes”, hoped a member of the government before Emmanuel Macron made his decision.
In the past, the Élysée has never hesitated to show virility to subtly reframe – or not – the Prime Minister when he suspected her of taking a few liberties. Even, to let a sword of Damocles hover above his head… At the twilight of these “hundred days” of reprieve and at the dawn of a new sparkling era of his five-year term, how can we imagine Emmanuel Macron not taking advantage of it to re-legitimize its Prime Minister by giving her all the assurances she will need? Make her, again, his undisputed conductor, for an indefinite period? “That would be the reasoning of a sane person, but the president is rarely so rational…”, shouts a Renaissance deputy who knows his head of state inside out. Especially since relations between the two heads of the executive have notoriously crumbled since the end of April.
“It’s a ‘stupid dinner‘”
Tension, again, always. Insecure, at the risk – or with the perfectly theorized and sought-after objective… – of creating a slight atmosphere of unease. What could be better than a reception under the gilding of the Republic to instil good humor and fear of the future, to blow Siberian hot and cold? This Tuesday evening, Emmanuel Macron invited the entire government for an Elysian dinner which will look, for some guests, like a farewell drink, because they will be thanked in the coming days. Some doubt it; others will have their stomachs in knots and will struggle to savor their appetizers. “Imagine tonight’s dinner… Everything is crazy! This guy is a genius, but not in human resources”, slips a member of the government, not in such a hurry to tread the footsteps of the palace. Another minister prefers to laugh about it: “It’s a ‘stupid dinner‘, except that no one knows who the idiots are.” Will the president take the trouble to warn them before sitting down to eat?
Emmanuel Macron will address the French by the end of the week, said the Elysée, to remind everyone of the course of his five-year term. It will be a question of being attentive, because it is a safe bet that his speech, his words which he always chooses with meticulousness, will depend on the fate of his Prime Minister. The president likes to make an appointment to take stock: will he risk giving a deadline? In autumn ? After the European elections? Olympic Games ? Will it be more vague, more ambiguous? “It can also be a CPE (First Hire Contract) of less than a few months, barely jokes a relative of the Head of State. All of this will depend on the substance of his speech, at which point everyone will see more clear.”
In the same way, the new governmental cast, as slim as it could be, will be analyzed in the light of the new start undertaken by the duo. The “adjustments” planned during this week are at the initiative of Elisabeth Borne, which would suggest that the Prime Minister is regaining control. Or that the Élysée shows elegance. A pure Macronist minister is convinced of this: “And if we detect his paw in the choice of new entrants, then that will comfort him.”